PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 19, 7:20 PM EDT953
FXUS61 KPBZ 192320
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
720 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will maintain dry weather and warm weather
through the middle of next week. Rain chances return late
Wednesday and Thursday with a crossing cold front.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry and warm conditions to close out the weekend
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon high temperatures verified at the 95th percentile of
the NBM with lower 70s outside of the higher terrain. These
values will drop off quickly with sunset. River valley fog is
possible during the predawn hours given the expected delta T
between water and air temperatures overnight. Any fog will burn
off by mid to late morning.
Sunday will be a repeat of Saturday with perhaps a 1-2F degree
bump in max temps. Values will be around ten degrees above
normal. Dewpoints again will drop into the 20s and lower 30s
during the afternoon creating RH values in the 30 percentile
range. Wall to wall sunshine again expected.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry weather and a warming trend through the period
-------------------------------------------------------------------
High pressure will remain centered across the Ohio River Valley
region through early next week. Confidence is high that
precipitation chances will be zero through at least Tuesday
night.
Similar temperatures to today are expected Sunday, before
rising 500mb heights and warmer 850mb temperatures result in
highs in the mid 70s for much of the area by Monday. A few
climate sites may be a few degrees shy of tying/breaking record
high temperatures on Tuesday if the environment exceeds the
guidance of the 95th percentile.
Overnight lows are expected to gradually warm each night, with
some river valley steam fog possible.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry and warm most of Wednesday
- Rain chances return late Wednesday with a crossing cold front
- Cooler to end the week
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Model ensembles indicate a weakening trough will advance out of
the Plains region, crossing the Upper Ohio Valley region
Wednesday. This should result in some increase in cloud cover,
and a slight decrease in temperatures.
A stronger shortwave trough and it's associated surface cold
front are expected to cross the region late Wednesday and
Wednesday night, with increasing shower chances. Limited
moisture with the front could be a limiting factor in the
extent of shower coverage with FROPA.
Shower chances should taper off by Thursday afternoon as high
pressure begins to build across the region. Cold NW flow will
result in temperatures around 5 degrees below average Thursday.
The coldest air will shift east of the region Friday and
Saturday, as a couple of weak upper troughs cross the region.
Mainly dry weather is expected to continue, with surface high
pressure remaining in place.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR with light wind is expected through the TAF period as high
pressure remains dominant. River valley fog could briefly impact
FKL and AGC early Sunday morning, so opted to keep TEMPOs in
those TAFs for the 11Z to 13Z timeframe.
.Outlook...
High pressure should maintain VFR conditions and light winds
into early next week.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WM/Hefferan
NEAR TERM...Hefferan/McMullen
SHORT TERM...Hefferan
LONG TERM...WM
AVIATION...Cermak/Rackley
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 19, 7:20 PM EDT---------------
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