ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 18, 6:41 AM EDT672
FXUS61 KILN 181041
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
641 AM EDT Fri Oct 18 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A large area of high pressure will offer dry weather through
the weekend into next week. As the center of the high slides
east of the area a slow warming trend will be observed
through the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A large mid level ridge will build over the the area today. A
large area of surface high pressure centered Ohio will drift
slightly east of the local area.
Temperatures will drop to early morning lows ranging from the
lower 30s to the upper 30s with frost expected in many
locations.
Under the influence of a dry airmass abundant sunshine will
continue to modify the air mass, resulting in high temperatures
generally in the upper 60s. These readings are close to normal.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
A large area of high pressure will remain centered just east of
the area over night into Saturday. Clear skies and light winds
will result in a favorable radiational cooling setup. Overnight
lows will range from 35 to 40. Patchy frost will again remain
possible with the best threat in the far east.
Under the influence of abundant sunshine temperatures will
continue to slowly warm with highs on Saturday around 70.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Frost will be more limited Saturday night as a milder air mass
continues to build in. High temperatures are more likely to climb
into the 70s across the entire CWA on Sunday with plenty of sunshine
in the forecast.
The synoptic pattern will remain fairly stagnant heading into the
work week as H5 ridging remains in place across a large portion of
the eastern CONUS. Temperatures will trend a smidge warmer on Monday
as highs will be more likely to reach the middle 70s. Overnight lows
will continue to trend a bit milder as well.
The next feature to monitor will be an approaching shortwave trough,
which will likely push a surface cold front through our CWA on
Wednesday. Some rain is possible with this, although long-range
models aren't producing much of a QPF footprint.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Surface high pressure centered over the area will offer clear
skies and light winds for TAF forecast period. Expect valley
fog at KLUK early this morning, with IFR restrictions. Also,
some brief MVFR vsby restrictions are possible at KILN.
Otherwise VFR conditions are expected thru the remainder of the
day into this evening. River valley fog is again expected at
KLUK with IFR visibility restrictions. Also, a brief MVFR
visibility restriction is possible at KILN due to fog toward
sunrise Saturday.
OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for OHZ026-034-035-
042>045-051>055-060>063-070>072-077>081.
KY...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for KYZ089>100.
IN...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for INZ050-058-059-
066-073>075-080.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...Clark
AVIATION...AR
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 18, 6:41 AM EDT---------------
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