BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 14, 3:20 PM EDT122
FXUS61 KBOX 141920
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
320 PM EDT Mon Oct 14 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front crosses the region tonight, bringing gusty NW winds
through Wednesday. Trough keeps chilly temperatures centered
over SNE through Thursday. Low pressure out to sea on Thursday
may bring a few light showers to the Cape. High pressure builds
in for the weekend bringing mild and dry conditions.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Clearing today has been slower than initially anticipated as a
secondary low formed out across western NY. The secondary cold front
will eventually work its way through SNE this evening into the
overnight, clearing out the low clouds and bringing gusty WNW winds
up to 30mph. Even with the clearing skies, blustery winds should
keep strong radiational cooling from occurring. Overnight lows
should stay in the low to mid-30s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Blustery NW winds at 20-25mph continue Tuesday, with CAA behind the
cold front. The upper-level cold pool and cyclonic vorticity will
remain over New England tomorrow, but with PWATS under 0.4 inches,
not expecting anything more than diurnal cumulus tomorrow afternoon.
High temps across the region range from the upper 40s to mid-50s.
The pressure gradient remains tight overnight Tuesday, keeping winds
gusty at 10-15mph. Skies remain mostly clear overnight, but
gusty winds should keep lows in the mid to upper 30s. If the
boundary layer is able to decouple overnight and winds go calm,
lows could easily fall into the upper 20s away from urban
centers and the coastline.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
* Cool temperatures mid week give way to a mild weekend as a ridge
builds over southern New England
* Several frosty mornings possible, especially Wednesday and
Thursday. Headlines will not be issued as the frost/freeze program
concluded on Oct 11
* Generally dry period with the outside chance of showers on the
Cape and Islands Thursday
Wednesday through Friday...
Deep digging trough remains in place over much of the eastern
seaboard through Thursday as parent low pressure retracts into the
Canadian maritimes. The southern tip of the trough will pinch off
into a weak low that will emerge off of the mid-Atlantic coast late
Wednesday evening/early Thursday before traveling northeast into the
general vicinity of "south of the benchmark" Thursday afternoon. Not
anticipating significant impacts from the low given its forecast
position well southeast of southern New England, but do anticipate
increased cloud cover across the Cape and Islands, as well as a low
risk for showers, Thursday evening into early Friday morning before
low is pushed to sea by ridging building into the region. Away from
the Cape and Islands, expecting increasing sunshine through the week
as dry air filters in from the northwest.
Temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday will be quite brisk for mid
October given cold air aloft; peaking around 12Z Wednesday with
850mb temperatures between minus 2 and minus 5C. With deep mixing
anticipated on dry, northwest flow, high temperatures will only top
out in the 50s, with morning lows in the upper 20s and 30s away from
the coast. The drying NW winds, which help daytime mixing, may
inhibit widespread frost formation Thursday morning with winds
expected to stay elevated around 10kt overnight. Did take the
opportunity given persistent NW winds and healthy mixing to drop
dewpoints Wednesday-Friday using a blend of the NBM/CONSAll. In
addition to dewpoints, did alter both high and low temperatures
Wed/Thurs slightly using a blend of the CONSMOS and NBM.
Temperatures will moderate a bit starting Friday as aforementioned
ridging develops.
Next Weekend...
Many will be wondering if the calendar is correct by next weekend as
strong mid level ridging develops over the East coast. Temperatures
will be more consistent with what we see in mid September, rather
than mid October as highs climb into the low to perhaps even mid 70s
for many both Saturday and Sunday; 850mb temperatures warm to as
high as 13C Saturday night! Ridging and expansive surface high
remain in place for the duration of the weekend and into early next
week.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Rest of Today...Low confidence.
IFR/LIFR CIGS have been much slower to clear out then initially
expected, but the clearing line is finally starting to become
visible in western MA and CT. This clearing line will slowly
move east this afternoon, but there may still be periods of
MVFR/IFR all the way through 00z. Winds look to turn SW this
afternoon and stay under 10 knots, but confidence in that is
low.
Tonight...Moderate Confidence
All terminals should go VFR by 00z as the winds shift to the NW
and gust up to 25 knots.
Tuesday...High Confidence
VFR with gusty NW winds at 15-20 knots
Tuesday night...High Confidence
VFR with gusty W winds at 10-15 knots.
KBOS TAF...Low confidence.
IFR/LIFR conditions should continue through about 20 to 21z,
before gradual improvements to MVFR/VFR. Winds are quite tricky
as they should turn SW for a bit this afternoon, but could also
remain light and variable from the NNW. The cold front finally
looks to arrive around 00z tonight which should clear out any
remaining low clouds. Winds behind the front turn NW gusting up
to 25 knots.
KBDL TAF...Moderate confidence
Gradual improvements to MVFR/VFR this afternoon with light SSW
winds. Winds turn NNW this evening gusting 20-25 knots.
Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...
Wednesday: VFR. Breezy.
Wednesday Night through Saturday: VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Tonight through Tuesday Night:
The cold front passes over the waters tonight, kicking out any
remaining showers and turning winds to the NW, gusting 25-30 knots.
However, seas start dropping to 4-6 feet overnight with the offshore
winds. Gusty NW winds at 20-25 knots continue Tuesday and
Tuesday night with 3-5 foot seas.
Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...
Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.
Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally
approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.
Thursday through Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight
chance of rain showers.
Friday through Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ230>234-236-
251.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ235-237.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ250-
254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KP/KS
NEAR TERM...KP
SHORT TERM...KP
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...KP/KS
MARINE...KP/KS
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 14, 3:20 PM EDT----------------
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