IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 17, 2:57 AM EDT341
FXUS63 KIND 170657
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
257 AM EDT Thu Oct 17 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A freeze warning is in effect through 9am.
- Additional frost likely tonight, trending warmer afterwards
- Dry weather expected through Monday, low chance for light showers
on Tuesday
&&
.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 256 AM EDT Thu Oct 17 2024
Coldest temperatures of the season will start off the day but a
shift to more southerly winds later today will begin the gradual
warming trend expected to continue into next week. At the surface,
the center of a high pressure system will be over the Ohio Valley,
slowly shifting NE while aloft, ridging will settle in. These will
create a stable and dry atmosphere through the column.
Winds through about midday will be calm to light, only increasing to
around 5 to 10 mph this afternoon. Skies are expected to remain
mostly clear other than some passing cirrus aloft.
After near to below freezing temperatures this morning, highs this
afternoon are forecast to return to the low to mid 60s with lows
tonight in the mid to upper 30s. Areas of frost will again be
possible tonight.
&&
.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 256 AM EDT Thu Oct 17 2024
Quiet weather is expected through Monday as strong surface high
pressure remains dominant across the region. Aloft, ridging also
remains over the eastern CONUS providing large scale subsidence.
Southerly flow around the high pressure centered east of central
Indiana and warming 850mb temperatures will allow for a gradual warm
up into early next week. Look for near seasonal highs by Friday with
temperatures reaching the lows 70s this weekend onward.
By early Tuesday morning, ensemble guidance shows an upper trough
moving across the midwest. There is a chance for some showers, but
limited moisture return and the strongest forcing remaining NW of
central Indiana should greatly limit rain chances. Also, if any
precipitation occurs it would likely be very light.
The pattern beyond Tuesday looks relatively quiet for the remainder
of the work week. Ensemble guidance suggest another upper wave
swings across the Great Lakes Region sometime Wednesday into
Thursday bringing a cold front with it. Precipitation chances appear
limited once again though due to the strongest forcing remaining
well north of central Indiana and limited moisture ahead of the
approaching front.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 141 AM EDT Thu Oct 17 2024
Impacts:
- None
Discussion:
VFR conditions expected through the period. Calm winds are expected
through the night and into midday. Winds may become light and
variable for the morning hours and then by the afternoon will be
from the SW to S around 5 kts. Skies will be mostly clear with some
passing cirrus.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...Melo
AVIATION...KF
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 17, 2:57 AM EDT---------------
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