ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 17, 2:23 AM EDT580
FXUS61 KILN 170623
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
223 AM EDT Thu Oct 17 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure of Canadian origin will offer below normal
temperatures into Friday. As the center of the high slides
east of the area a slow warming trend will be observed
through the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Stratocumulus clouds are persisting across parts of the central,
southern, and western ILN forecast area. Eventually, clear skies
are expected virtually everywhere in the CWA, though it will be
another few hours for some of these locations. Where skies have
gone clear -- particularly central Ohio and parts of the Scioto
Valley area -- temperatures have already fallen into the 30s.
Freezing conditions are still expected everywhere, though they
will be more marginal in places where the clouds are yet to
dissipate. Definitely think some low spots under clear skies in
central and south-central Ohio could see some values in the
upper 20s.
Previous discussion >
Mostly to partly cloudy skies this afternoon will break up in
the evening. This may be a little later in central Ohio where a
persistent area of deeper moisture is advecting in on northerly
winds passing over Lake Huron and western Lake Erie. Northerly
wind will lighten as the boundary layer decouples and high
pressure begins to take over the weather for the next several
days. Highs will top out in the mid 50s. This could be cooler
over central Ohio where cloud cover may linger into the evening,
inhibiting the afternoon temperature surge found with the
clearing skies expected elsewhere.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
It is still unclear if this minor freeze event this morning
will be enough to end the frost/freeze program is some areas so
additional frost/freeze headlines are likely needed for tonight.
These will be issued by the next forecast shift after an
assessment is completed regarding low temperatures this
morning. Given the higher chance for lighter winds, and the high
pressure building in from the south, more widespread
temperature values between 30 to 33 degrees are expected.
The high pressure continues to build over the region during the
afternoon, supporting light and variable winds. Abundant
sunshine will modify the cooler air mass, resulting in high
temperatures around the 60 degree mark. This is still about five
degrees below normal for this time in October.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure remains over the region through at least Monday.
Gradually warming temperatures are expected during the period while
mostly clear skies and light winds persist. Forecast highs reach up
into the middle and upper 70s by Monday.
Warm conditions continue into the middle of next week when the high
shifts east which will allow stronger southerly flow to develop.
Rain chances start to increase by Tuesday into Wednesday as a cold
front may drop into the region.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A large area of surface high pressure will offer clear skies and
light winds with VFR conditions expected through the period.
The exception is KLUK, where valley fog is forecast to develop
this morning, and some LIFR conditions with dense fog will
likely occur between 10Z-13Z. It should be noted that surface
observations from KLUK are not currently available and will not
likely be available through the morning hours. AMD NOT SKED was
included in the KLUK TAF and timely updates to visibility/ceiling
observations and forecasts are not expected.
OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for OHZ026-034-035-
042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for KYZ089>100.
IN...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for INZ050-058-059-
066-073>075-080.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...Franks/Hatzos
SHORT TERM...Franks/McGinnis
LONG TERM...Hickman
AVIATION...AR
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 17, 2:23 AM EDT---------------
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