BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 14, 1:31 PM EDT425
FXUS61 KBOX 141731
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
131 PM EDT Mon Oct 14 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through the region this afternoon
followed by colder and blustery conditions tonight through
Wednesday. High pressure will be in control for Thursday through
next weekend bringing dry conditions and a warming trend with
above normal temperatures beginning Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM Update:
Some scattered showers have started moving through parts of
central MA and NE CT, which will continue to be possible
through the next 5 hours. This will also be the case across the
Cape and Islands following other showers and thunderstorms that
have moved off to the nearby waters. Aside from that, the rest
of the forecast looks to be on track; should continue to expect
drier conditions later today.
Previous Discussion:
Cluster of showers and isolated t-storms will be exiting the
Cape/Islands during the next 1-2 hours. However, another round of
showers expected to develop as amplifying upper trough approaches
from the west. These showers should be moving across the region this
morning. A few t-storms possible as activity reaches RI and eastern
MA after daybreak as elevated instability axis will be focused
across SE New Eng 12-15z. Dry slot lifts northward into the region
late morning and afternoon resulting in a drying trend but can't
rule out a few showers across the interior this afternoon with the
trough and shortwave passage. Strong cold front sweeps across SNE 18-
00z followed by good drying so expect increasing sunshine to develop
through the afternoon. Gusty W winds will also develop behind the
front as boundary layers deepens with strong CAA aloft. Gusts to 30
mph will likely develop mid-late afternoon.
Temp forecast is tricky today. Warm front is south of New Eng with
light N winds and cool temps across much of the region, except
milder Cape/Islands near the boundary. Warm front probably will not
advance much further N as wave travels along the boundary. However,
it appears a weak front will precede the stronger cold front toward
midday with a wind shift to SW and low level inversion mixing out
allowing allowing temps to spike into the 60s, especially RI and SE
MA, with some upper 60s possible. But highs will likely remain in
the 50s north and west of I-95 corridor.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Tonight...
Upper trough and cold front moves to the east tonight. Excellent
drying with PWATs dropping to 0.25" will result in mostly clear
skies but remaining blustery through the night in the cold
advection. NW winds will gusts to 20-30 mph this evening before
gradually diminishing overnight. Lows will be mostly in the 30s,
coldest higher terrain, with wind chills by late tonight into the
20s across the interior.
Tuesday...
Mean trough will be over New England with another shortwave moving
through. The column is rather dry so not expecting any showers, but
cold pool aloft will lead to diurnal CU developing with a mix of sun
and clouds. Temps will be several degrees below normal with highs
mostly in the mid 50s, but upper 40s over the interior high terrain.
NW winds 10-20 mph with higher gusts will make it feel cooler.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key Points:
* Below normal temperatures Wednesday followed by warming trend
Thursday into the weekend.
Wednesday and Wednesday Night:
A deep trough and upper low remain in place across the northeast
Wednesday. Below normal 850mb temperatures accompany this pattern
resulting in highs 8-10 degrees below normal. Highs remain in the
50s, with upper 40s in hilly spots. Flow aloft stays consistently
out of the NW during this period with breezy NW surface winds.
Conditions will be mainly dry supported by subsident flow, but can't
rule out a few offshore showers. Cool night Wednesday night with
lows dropping into the 30s in most spots and low 40s for the coastal
areas. Higher elevation spots will likely be in the low 30s range.
Models indicate potential for some scattered clouds overnight.
However, if clouds trend less, could see more cooling especially in
the cooler spots.
Thursday - Saturday:
The main axis of the trough shifts to the east of the region on
Thursday as an upper level ridge approaches from the west. This will
be a transition day before the ridge advects in higher heights and
warmer temperatures. Highs trend slightly warmer Thursday with highs
slowly rebounding into the mid/upper 50s. Similarly cool Thursday
night with lows in the 30s for the interior and 40s closer to the
coast.
Friday into the weekend, the main axis of the ridge pushes eastward
with above normal 850mb temperatures shifting into the region. This
will continue the warming trend continues highs rising back into the
60s Friday and upper 60s Saturday with a few 70s sprinkled in.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Rest of Today...Low confidence.
IFR/LIFR CIGS have been much slower to clear out then initially
expected, but the clearing line is finally starting to become
visible in western MA and CT. This clearing line will slowly
move east this afternoon, but there may still be periods of
MVFR/IFR all the way through 00z. Winds look to turn SW this
afternoon and stay under 10 knots, but confidence in that is
low.
Tonight...Moderate Confidence
All terminals should go VFR by 00z as the winds shift to the NW
and gust up to 25 knots.
Tuesday...High Confidence
VFR with gusty NW winds at 15-20 knots
Tuesday night...High Confidence
VFR with gusty W winds at 10-15 knots.
KBOS TAF...Low confidence.
IFR/LIFR conditions should continue through about 20 to 21z,
before gradual improvements to MVFR/VFR. Winds are quite tricky
as they should turn SW for a bit this afternoon, but could also
remain light and variable from the NNW. The cold front finally
looks to arrive around 00z tonight which should clear out any
remaining low clouds. Winds behind the front turn NW gusting up
to 25 knots.
KBDL TAF...Moderate confidence
Gradual improvements to MVFR/VFR this afternoon with light SSW
winds. Winds turn NNW this evening gusting 20-25 knots.
Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...
Tuesday: VFR. Breezy.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance FZRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Breezy.
Wednesday Night through Friday: VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Today through Tuesday...
Winds mostly N, with S winds over southern most waters will shift to
W-SW this afternoon with gusts to 25-30 kt developing. Gusty NW
winds to 25-30 kt will persist this evening before temporarily
diminishing late tonight. But renewed 25 kt gusts will develop Tue.
SCA is in effect for all waters. Rough seas over the southern
waters today and tonight will subside a bit by Tue.
Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...
Tuesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.
Tuesday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 20 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain
showers.
Wednesday through Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas
of seas approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.
Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Slight chance of rain showers.
Thursday Night through Friday: Winds less than 25 kt.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ230-231-236.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ232>234.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ235-237-250-
251.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/Mensch
NEAR TERM...KJC/Hrencecin/Mensch
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...Mensch
AVIATION...KP
MARINE...KJC/Mensch
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 14, 1:31 PM EDT----------------
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