NHC issues Tropical Cyclone Discussion (TCD) at Oct 9, 1:00 PM AST830
WTNT43 KNHC 090837
TCDAT3
Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024
500 AM AST Wed Oct 09 2024
Conventional satellite imagery shows that Leslie's cloud pattern has
changed little during the past few hours. Earlier SSMIS and AMSU-B
microwaves overpasses, however, indicated that Leslie's structure
has become vertically tilted southeast to northwest, indicative of
the previously mentioned mid-level southerly shear component. A
blend of the Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and
SAB and a 0610 UTC UW-CIMSS 72 kt SATCON analysis yield an
initial intensity at 70 kt.
Although the undercutting shear is expected to persist, slight
intensity fluctuations are possible today and tonight while Leslie
moves through a marginally conducive thermodynamic environment and
over warm oceanic surface temperatures. Afterward, the global
models show an upper-tropospheric anticyclone developing over the SW
Atlantic, between Milton and Leslie. This feature is expected to
spread moderate northerly shear over the central subtropical
Atlantic inhibiting ventilation aloft over the north portion of the
cyclone. Consequently, weakening is expected, and Leslie is
forecast to quickly lose its associated convection and become a
post-tropical cyclone in 3 days.
Leslie's initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, 310/9 kt,
and this general motion is expected to continue during the next
couple of days. By mid-period, the cyclone is forecast to slow in
forward speed and turn toward the north while rounding the
southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge to the northeast.
Afterward, Leslie should accelerate and turn toward the northeast in
response to a major shortwave trough approaching the cyclone from
the northeast. The NHC forecast is close to the previous one and is
based on a compromise of the TVCN and HCCA consensus models.
Leslie's wind radii were adjusted based on 2354 UTC METOP-B and 0049
UTC METOP-C scatterometer passes.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/0900Z 21.2N 47.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 22.0N 48.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 23.0N 49.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 10/1800Z 23.9N 50.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 11/0600Z 25.4N 50.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 11/1800Z 27.6N 48.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 12/0600Z 30.0N 46.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 13/0600Z 34.3N 36.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 14/0600Z 35.4N 28.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Roberts
Source:
NHC issues Tropical Cyclone Discussion (TCD) at Oct 9, 1:00 PM AST---------------
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