PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 14, 1:31 PM CDT561
FXUS63 KPAH 141831
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
131 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- This season's first frost has the potential to occur Tuesday
night and Wednesday night. A few of the typical cold spots may
even drop to near the freezing mark for low temperatures.
- Upper 50s to lower 60s for mid week highs will transition back
into the 70s over the weekend, as a warming trend ensues.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 130 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024
H8 temps have cooled to 0 to 5C and are staged to cool another
2-3C thru the mid week, as the primary long wave trof axis makes
passage tmrw. Cool and dry high pressure works in overtop the
region as the trof departs to the east. This pattern holds, with
the high shifting eastward with time, before it effectively gets
caught in a Rex-like block by a low off the southeast coast and
another approaching one from the west. That high then keeps us
under its influence and as a result, we stay high and dry for
the remainder of the forecast.
That said, there has been some flirtation with a non zero pop
with the translation of the aforementioned upper trof across our
FA. With PW's running about a quarter of normal, we think the
column is starved enough to preclude pop mention, but cannot
argue that a few sprinkles definitively will not squeeze out and
reach the ground; but we think the chance is low enough to
eschew its grid mention.
Perhaps the main forecast parameter of note is the potential for
frost Tuesday night and Wednesday night, given forecast low
temperatures in the lower to middle 30s each night. The
collaborative consensus is to hold off on headlines Tuesday
night, as a light north or northwest gradient flow is
maintained. We may well end up with one, but waiting another
12-24 hours might bring this into better focus. The center of
the ridge axis is directly overhead heading into the following
night, so that may not be an issue then. We'll continue to
highlight the potential for both nights and see how the headline
discussion proceeds and if the overall forecast picture clears
with a little more time.
Looking ahead, both the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks call for
above normal temps and below normal pcpn.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 130 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024
A pool of lower VFR bases within the heart of the parent long
wave trof has rotated within its base and neared enough so as to
impact our northeast terminals this afternoon. Time/height
cross sections show this trend picking up over the back half of
the forecast, as the primary axis is modeled to make its
approach tonight and eventual passage tomorrow. Gusty northwest
to north winds may occur at times during the daytime, with light
winds expected overnight.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 14, 1:31 PM CDT---------------
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