JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 14, 3:20 PM EDT197
FXUS63 KJKL 141920
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
320 PM EDT Mon Oct 14 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Patchy to widespread frost is expected each night from Tuesday
night through Thursday night.
- Freezing temperatures could be rather widespread Tuesday night
and again Wednesday night.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 320 PM EDT MON OCT 14 2024
Current surface analysis is active across must of the eastern CONUS.
Last night's cold front has made it to the eastern seaboard with the
surface low moving offshore in New England. Cold high pressure is
building into the region; however, low-level moisture coupled with
upper-level troughing has favored the development of stratus deck
that's moved south from the Great Lakes. These clouds and upper-
level northwesterly flow have largely stifled high temperatures
today as highs have only climbed into the low to mid-50s. Areas on
on the Cumberland Plateau have climbed into the upper-50s to low-60s
as clouds haven't made it that far south.
Overnight tonight into Tuesday morning, upper-level troughing will
pivot into the region and favor surface development of showers and
isolated thunderstorms. Shower chances will largely be confined to
areas north of the Hal Rogers Parkway with isolated thunderstorm
chances confined to areas north of I-64. With the low freezing
levels over the area, some of the deep showers or storms could bring
instances of graupel Tuesday afternoon. Also, due to the low
freezing levels, snow has snuck into the forecast grids but mainly
for Black Mountain. Showers will taper off and dissipate Tuesday
night with surface high pressure building back into the area.
Tuesday night into Wednesday will feature the coldest temperatures
of the season as lows are forecast to fall into the upper-20s to low-
30s. This will create widespread frost and bring an end to the
eastern Kentucky growing season.
Overall, the forecast period will be highlighted by chances showers
and storms on Tuesday with a major cool-down expected that'll bring
about the end of the growing season and widespread frost.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 300 PM EDT MON OCT 14 2024
We will begin the period with good agreement on surface high
pressure progressing eastward into the Ohio Valley in tandem with
upper level ridging. This high pressure will waver back and forth
across the region through the period. The blocking pattern aloft
and surface high pressure will keep the weather very quiet through
the long term period. The biggest story will be the below normal
temperatures to begin the period, with highs on Wednesday
remaining in the low to mid 50s for most locations. Then as the
week rolls on the highs will creep back up closer to just above
normal, with highs in the lower 70s Saturday into Monday. The
other concern will be freezing temperatures and frost that will be
particularly widespread Wednesday night into Thursday morning. In
this case the NBM is trying to show around a 50 to 80 percent
chance for at least most valleys locations getting below freezing.
Given the typical splits seen in a case like this will lean
toward the tenth percentile of the NBM to better handle valley
lows. Either way frost will at least be a concern in the valleys
through Friday morning and lesser concern moving into the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT MON OCT 14 2024
VFR conditions are prevailing across all TAF sites with this
issuance. A deck of stratus clouds has moved south into the area
and terminals are VFR but could fluctuate between VFR and MVFR
through much of the forecast period as this cloud deck remains
overhead. Terminals are also experiencing west-northwest winds
that are sustained around 10 knots with gusts upwards of 20 knots.
These winds are forecast to persist over the next couple of hours
but will slowly diminish toward sunset. Scattered showers are
forecast to develop late tonight/early tomorrow morning and will
begin impacting terminal KSYM after 10Z/Tuesday with the
remaining terminals seeing VCSH chances increase through the
remainder of the TAF period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...VORST
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 14, 3:20 PM EDT---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
