IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 13, 12:26 PM EDT553
FXUS63 KIND 131626
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1226 PM EDT Sun Oct 13 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Cooler and breezy today
- Wind gusts around 20-30 mph possible this afternoon with gusts up
to 35 mph this evening
- Coldest air of the Fall for first half of the week with frost expected
a few mornings. Some areas could see freezing temperatures a
morning or two
- Other than low chances for showers across the northern counties
through Monday night, dry weather will persist
&&
.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 921 AM EDT Sun Oct 13 2024
- Partly Cloudy and Cooler
Surface analysis late this morning shows low pressure centered over
NW Ohio. A trailing cold front was found stretching SW from the low,
across Central Indiana to southern IL and southern MO. Strong high
pressure was found over the northern Plains. Aloft, a moderate upper
wave was found over MN/Ontario. Northerly flow around this feature
was found over the northern plains, before that flow turns more
westerly across Illinois and Indiana. GOES16 shows some low clouds
over NW Indiana, but these were beginning to mix out as heating
returns this morning. A moderate pressure gradient was in place
across the area as the low was departing. Surface flow was from the
west, becoming northwest.
The upper low trough over MN will dig southeast today, continuing to
provide cyclonic flow aloft. However any forcing with this feature
will remain north of Central Indiana. Through the afternoon the
surface low will push east to PA, and the associated cold front will
also dive farther south. This will result in continued NW flow
through the day along with ongoing cold air advection. Forecast
soundings through the day show a dry column and subsidence is
expected through the afternoon. The morning clouds are thus expected
to dissipate as mixing continue. Overall, will look for just partly
cloudy skies across Central Indiana with highs in the middle 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 309 AM EDT Sun Oct 13 2024
Current surface analysis shows a weak low pressure centered near the
IL/IN border with a cold front stretching back into western
Illinois. This front will move through later this morning helping to
shift winds to northwesterly and filter in cooler air. No
precipitation is expected from the approaching front due to dry air
in the low-mid levels. Look for cold air advection to keep highs
today about 10 degrees cooler than yesterday. Highs will generally
be in the low-mid 70s.
The main concern in the short term is the potential for strong wind
gusts later today. Steepening lapse rates will likely promote the
potential for 20-30 mph gusts by this afternoon. Even stronger gusts
are possible during the evening hours as models show another cold
front and strong low-level jet moving in after about 5pm. Steep low-
level lapse rates combined with the strong LLJ could support wind
gusts up to 35 mph. Sustained winds around 20mph are also expected
so make sure to secure any loose outdoor items. These strong winds
may continue through much of tonight as the elevated winds make it
difficult for the PBL to decouple.
While elevated winds will keep the PBL mixed, temperatures are still
going to cool considerably tonight thanks to strong cold air
advection. Look for lows to fall well into the 40s which is near
normal for this time of year. There is a low chance for a few light
showers across northern counties late tonight as a weak surface low
traverses the region.
&&
.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 309 AM EDT Sun Oct 13 2024
The upper trough over and north of the Great Lakes will continue to
be an influence on the region's weather through at least midweek.
The northerly to northwest flow will bring in cooler than normal
temperatures for much of the week with highs in the mid 50s to near
60 Monday through Wednesday. Morning lows through Thursday morning
will also be colder than normal with widespread frost being a
concern and some areas may even drop to or slightly below freezing.
Moisture on the backside of the trough system may be enough to
provide a few light showers during the first few days of of the
weeks with best chances across the north. Models have been
continuing to hint that there may be a few showers but inconsistent
on timing and location, plus there will be a lot of dry air to
contend with which all lead to a lack of confidence. However, would
expect best chances of precip to come from lake effect showers
thanks to the northerly flow that will be in place.
As we get to the latter half of the work week, ridging will start to
move in and temperatures will gradually warm back to near to
slightly above normal. At the surface a large high will encompass
the eastern US providing clear skies and drier air. Min RH values
are forecasted to be near 30% for the latter half of the week so
elevated fire weather may be a concern.
Models are showing another trough moving in around the weekend but
there is quite an array of solutions coming from models so not sure
at this time when it will arrive yet. This will lead to lower
confidence on the forecast for next weekend. Precipitation is
expected with it which could arrive Sunday or could arrive the
following week.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1225 PM EDT Sun Oct 13 2024
Impacts:
- Brief MVFR ceilings possible at LAF band IND on Monday Morning;
Otherwise VFR.
Discussion:
A cold front has pushed east of the TAF sites. GOES16 shows a MVFR
cloud deck in the wake of the front, passing across IND and just
about to exit LAF. These clouds should be exiting all TAF sites by
18Z-19Z. A moderate pressure gradient remains across Central
Indiana. This will continue to result in gusty winds this afternoon
and continued mixing overnight.
Strong cold air advection overnight and good mixing suggests the
development of an MVFR Stratocu deck overnight. Forecast soundings
show the development of lower level saturation. Thus MVFR at IND and
LAF during the daybreak hours. MVFR should dissipate as mixing and
heating returns on Monday morning, but VFR stratocu is expected.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Puma
SHORT TERM...Melo
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...Puma
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 13, 12:26 PM EDT---------------
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