CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 14, 7:00 AM EDT317
FXUS61 KCLE 141100
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
700 AM EDT Mon Oct 14 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A trough will move into the area today and linger over the
region through early Wednesday. A ridge will build into the
local area Wednesday night into Thursday and persist into the
weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
630 AM EDT Update...
Showers associated with the trough axis are pushing inland with
the highest coverage/rainfall rates occurring downwind from
Lake Erie in NE OH. This activity will continue to push
south/southeast throughout the morning before exiting to the
southeast by about 15Z/11 AM. Some embedded lightning is
possible within pockets of convective showers. Overall, not a
ton of changes needed outside of adjusting morning PoPs based
on latest radar and more recent high resolution guidance.
Previous Discussion...
The forecast for the near term period will be driven by a
trough settled over eastern Great Lakes. An upper trough axis
will pivot across the local area this morning and PoPs will
increase from north to south prior to sunrise. 850mb
temperatures will be right around freezing which will result in
sufficient lake- induced instability for lake-enhancement across
NE OH and NW PA. Pockets of dry air will work into the area
behind the trough and the only real moisture source will be
provided by a Lake Huron/Lake St. Clair connection, which will
likely result in a period of mostly dry weather (and perhaps a
few peeks of sunshine!) outside a strip of lake effect rain
showers somewhere near or just to the west of the I-71 corridor.
A shortwave will push south/southeast over the Great Lakes
tonight into Tuesday before settling over the region through the
remainder of the near term period. Expect an uptick in moisture
and lake-enhanced precipitation starting tonight as 850mb
temperatures decrease to -2 to -4C. The highest PoPs will most
likely focus somewhere downwind from Lake Huron (near or
slightly east of the Cleveland metro area) during the day
Tuesday with a secondary band potentially developing as far east
as NW PA towards the end of the period. Temperatures across the
higher elevations of interior NW PA will dip into the low to
mid 30s overnight and a few wet snowflakes could mix in with
rain showers prior to sunrise Tuesday morning. There may be
sufficient instability for some convective showers and maybe a
few rumbles of thunder Tuesday afternoon and can't rule out
graupel and/or small hail given the cool temperatures aloft.
Most of the precipitation should remain to the west of the I-75
corridor later tonight through Tuesday and sky cover might even
become partly cloudy by Tuesday afternoon.
As mentioned in the previous discussion, rainfall rates may be
efficient at times but flooding isn't a huge concern unless
bands of heavier precipitation rates persist over low-lying,
urban, and/or poor drainage areas
Today's highs will be in the chilly mid to upper 40s (NW PA) to
the low to mid 50s. Cooler overnight lows in the mid to upper
30s to lower 40s are anticipated with lower 30s possible across
the higher terrain of interior NW PA tonight. Some patchy frost
can't be ruled out across NW OH and maybe interior NW PA if a
drier forecast pans out, but winds may be just a touch too high
for frost development. Will continue to monitor forecast trends
and message any increase in frost potential if needed. Tuesday
will be the coolest day of the week (and fall thus far) with
highs in the mid 40s to lower 40s anticipated.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The last shortwave will move through the longwave upper level trough
Tuesday night. There will be an uptick in lake effect showers
Tuesday evening into the overnight hours. 850 mb will fall to around
-5C and surface temperatures in the middle 30s. Mainly rain
showers are expected but some wet snow and graupel mixing in
will be possible over the interior areas of NEOH and NWPA. High
pressure will start to build in by late Wednesday afternoon
which will shut off the last of the lake effect showers. Clouds
will clear out Wednesday night with high pressure moving right
now the Ohio Valley. There is increasing potential that a
widespread freeze looks possible for inland areas away from the
lakeshore. High pressure will continue to remain nearby on
Thursday with fair weather. High temperatures will range from
the upper 40s to middle 50s on Wednesday. Low temperatures
Wednesday night will drop into the lower 30s away from the lake.
Sunny skies will return on Thursday with high temperatures
ranging from the middle 50s to lower 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A period of quiet weather is expected for the end of the week
through next weekend. An upper level ridge of high pressure will
take control of the weather pattern over the Ohio Valley next
weekend. Friday through Sunday, high temperatures will range from
the middle 60s to lower 70s. By next Monday, temperatures will climb
into the upper 60s to middle 70s. The weather will remain dry Friday
through next Monday.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Periodic and scattered lake enhanced/effect showers will occur
throughout the TAF period. The first round of rain is ongoing
across northeastern Ohio into northwestern Pennsylvania as a
trough axis drops into the region. A mixed bag of MVFR and VFR
conditions are expected with these showers, but can't rule out a
brief period of IFR with lower ceilings at YNG and with
visibilities within pockets of heavier rain. Latest radar trends
indicate some convective showers moving onshore so a few
isolated rumbles of thunder are possible, but confidence is too
low to include in any TAFs at this time.
A lull with maybe some isolated lake effect showers downwind
from Lake Huron will unfold somewhere between KCLE/KMFD and
KTOL/KFDY later this morning through this afternoon with
additional lake-enhanced showers developing in the vicinity of
KCLE as another trough moves into the area later this evening.
Conditions should improve to VFR by late morning with MVFR
conditions returning to KMFD/KCLE/KCAK/KYNG with lake effect
showers/clouds late in the TAF period.
Winds will be out of the northwest at 8 to 15 knots with gusts
to 20 to 25 knots early in the period before winds shift to the
northwest and gusts diminish slightly by 15Z. Winds gradually
diminish to 6 to 12 knots this evening with light and variable
winds anticipated after 00Z.
Outlook...Scattered rain showers and lake effect clouds will
likely produce periodic non-VFR conditions through Wednesday
evening.
&&
.MARINE...
Conditions on the lake will be rough through mid week. A prolonged
period of gusty northerly to northwesterly winds are expected
through Wednesday. Small Craft Advisories are currently in effect
and will generally remain in place through Wednesday. There may be
some break periods where the winds decrease for several hours
in between waves of cooler air advecting across Lake Erie. Overall
North to Northwest winds will be 15 to 25 knots through Wednesday.
Winds will become southerly 5 to 10 knots by the end of the week. We
will let the next marine forecaster take a look at extending the
current SCA further out.
Waterspouts are likely on the lake through early Wednesday as
unseasonably cold air crosses the warm lake setting up moderate to
extreme instability. The best potential will be within lake-effect
showers.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for LEZ142-
143.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
LEZ144>146.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for
LEZ147>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Maines
NEAR TERM...Maines
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Maines
MARINE...Griffin
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 14, 7:00 AM EDT---------------
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