LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 13, 9:51 PM EDT008
FXUS63 KLMK 140151
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
951 PM EDT Sun Oct 13 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Breezy and turning much cooler tonight.
* A few light rain showers possible Tuesday, mainly in the
Bluegrass region.
* Widespread frost likely Wednesday and Thursday morning. There is
a low probability of sub-freezing temperatures, especially on
Thursday morning.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 950 PM EDT Sun Oct 13 2024
Strong cold front moving through the Ohio Valley in pieces, as a
sharp upper shortwave trof swings across Lake Michigan. Main sfc
cold front has pushed to the Kentucky/Virginia border, keeping any
isolated convection well to our south and east. A reinforcing shot
of dry air is now well into southern Indiana, with a decent NW wind
surge behind it. While we have seen gusts to 35 kt at IND and 28 kt
at HUF, there's less momentum to mix down this far south, so would
expect wind gusts later this evening to peak at 20-25 kt in
southern Indiana and into the I-64 corridor in Kentucky.
Otherwise the previous forecast is pretty well on track
overnight as cold advection sets up.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 320 PM EDT Sun Oct 13 2024
The surface low currently over northeast Ohio will continue pushing
eastward into Pennsylvania this afternoon. Meanwhile, the trailing
cold front associated with this feature will steadily sink NW to SE
through the area. The front is currently analyzed along and just
north of the Ohio River, and will continue to gradually sink
southeastward through the remainder of the afternoon and early
evening. Gusty winds have been common out ahead of the front, with
most peak gusts in the 20 to 30 mph range. A few spots will see
continue to see some gusts over 30 mph, but they won't be as common.
Later this evening, there could be some initiation along the frontal
boundary both in part due to an upslope component kicking in on the
terrain of eastern KY, or the arrival of a mid level impulse. The
front should be mostly through our area by then, but will hang onto
an isolated chance down around Lake Cumberland around or just after
sunset.
Much cooler tonight with lows dropping down well into the 40s in the
post frontal regime. Monday brings continued dry conditions and a
much cooler day! Steady, to slightly gusty, NW winds will along with
increased cloud cover, especially across the NE 2/3 of our CWA.
Highs only expected in the low 60s for most, with some in the NE
likely not making it out of the 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 320 PM EDT Sun Oct 13 2024
Monday night, the axis of an upper ridge will be just west of the
Rockies, and as it stretches north into Canada it will bend to the
east around an upper trough dropping south through the Ohio Valley.
It's this trough that will push a reinforcing cold front south
towards southern Indiana and central Kentucky. The front will mainly
bring extra cloud cover the the area, and with light west-northwest
winds, low temperatures are expected to drop into the low to mid 40s
overnight.
Tuesday, as the front continues to work south, northeastern parts of
the CWA will see a chance of a shower or two, mainly from near
Madison, Indiana through the greater Bluegrass region of Kentucky.
Later in the day, as the front passes, winds will veer towards the
north as a surface high gets pushed south through the Midwest. The
high pressure with the upper ridge moving into the area will clear
skies.
Tuesday night, cold air advection will lead to temperatures falling
into low to mid 30s across the CWA, resulting in widespread frost
across the region. As the upper ridge and surface high pass over the
Lower Ohio Valley, high temperatures will be limited to mostly the
50s on Wednesday before slightly warming to the low to mid 60s on
Thursday. Low temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday nights will see
many areas in the low to mid 30s, resulting in many areas seeing
frost.
For the end of the work week, the surface high will move east of the
CWA, bringing warm air advection back to the CWA. Highs will return
to the upper 60s to low 70s on Friday before the low to mid 70s for
the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 710 PM EDT Sun Oct 13 2024
Cold front has pushed south of the terminals, but a secondary cold
advection surge is evident in central Indiana. Main question is how
much mixing is still in play when the cold air is reinforced later
this evening. Will account for this by holding on to gusts just
short of 20 kt at SDF, LEX and HNB until close to midnight.
Winds will be light from the W-NW overnight, and then pick up again
as mixing increases mid-morning on Monday. Gusts near 20 kt across
the board, with at least sct strato-cu. Being closer to the upper
low, LEX could see a ceiling, but it will remain VFR with bases near
4K feet.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RAS
SHORT TERM...BJS
LONG TERM...KDW
AVIATION...RAS
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 13, 9:51 PM EDT---------------
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