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730 FXUS64 KLIX 080832AFDLIXArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service New Orleans LA332 AM CDT Tue Oct 8 2024...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE....SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)Issued at 326 AM CDT Tue Oct 8 2024We will need to start with the 63F dew pt line for finding the best dew pt gradient that shows the leading edge of this sfc cold front. Two main items that most like to associate with cold frontal passages just won't work for finding this one. One of those is northerly wind direction, this wind direction has already been established well ahead of this cold front. The next thing is a line or some type of cloud cover, but since the high on to the south side and north side of this front are bridging the front so strongly down to 800mb and the fact that the high ahead of the front was being squeezed between the front and the hurricane's outer envelope, the sfc-800mb air is just too dry and suppression above that is just not allowing even a line of clouds to be produced. So, the only thing that can find this front is dew pt gradient since temp gradients are weak as well. Eventhough dew pt temps did slowly fall to 63F, once they reached this temp, they quickly fell into the 50s. This is also allowing the air to cool as well. The somewhat cool air being advected with this will help keep temps in the low to mid 80s with the hot spots being around 90F as one approaches the Miss/Bama border. But the morning and evening hours will be quite refreshing and maybe even a bit cool(dare i say). But it will be quite enjoyable as temps warm toward afternoon. No rain with much of the same tomorrow as well. Winds could be breezy along the coast with northerly winds reaching 20mph in gusts.We will cancel the coastal flood advisory for at least the next 24 hours as tides should fall away with the frontal passage today and tonight. But as this front stalls and the dynamic fetch strengthens over the next 36 hours, this may be back as a headline for late Wed night into early Thu morning but again only minor issues expected.&&.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)Issued at 326 AM CDT Tue Oct 8 2024The nice dry conditions are expected to continue well into the extended fcast. By next Mon or Tue, we should see another cold front move to or past the area. This front should also be dry as high pressure on both sides bridges this front. So basically, there are no issues seen for the next several days.&&.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS) Issued at 326 AM CDT Tue Oct 8 2024VFR through this cycle.&&.MARINE...Issued at 326 AM CDT Tue Oct 8 2024N winds will remain over all waters but will rise as one transits from north to south and especially the farther away from shore.Overall sea heights could be higher today through Wed with the contribution of swell from Milton. We will keep caution statements up for the nearshore waters and advisories for the outer waters into Thu. The main culprit for these flags will be overall seas made up of mainly swell from Milton. This addition of swell from the south and wind waves from the north is causing a confused sea which causes numerous peaks to form. So we should find seas of 4 to 6 feet in our nearshore waters starting today with even higher seas past the 20nm mark. Wind waves are contributing but not nearly as much as swell as winds should remain around 20kt or so. Northerly winds will remain around 20-25kt as a cold front moves through and the sfc high behind the front interacts with the overall lower pressure farther south. Some of the outer most waters could have winds around gale force for a short time Wed into Wed night as Milton makes its closest approach to our waters. While Milton traverses the gulf, conditions will rapidly worsen the farther offshore one travels for the next few days. Winds and seas will slowly lower strarting Thu. Some swell could still be in the wave sets by late Wed but winds will be lowered to around 10kt and overall seas will subside as well through the remainder of the week.&&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...MCB 82 56 84 58 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 87 59 88 62 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 85 61 88 62 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 84 67 86 68 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 86 64 88 65 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 90 64 91 63 / 0 0 0 0 &&.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...LA...None.GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Wednesday to 4 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ550-552-555-557. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ570-572-575- 577.MS...None.GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Wednesday to 4 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ552-555-557. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ572-575-577.&&$$SHORT TERM...TELONG TERM....TEAVIATION...TEMARINE...TE
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Topic: [Alert]LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 8, 3:32 AM CDT ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... (Read 24 times)
