IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 10, 2:00 AM EDT355
FXUS63 KIWX 100600
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
200 AM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Dry and mild weather pattern continues through Saturday with
large diurnal temperature swings as highs top out in the 70s.
* Low rain chances return for the second half of the weekend
before turning much colder for early to mid next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 AM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024
Quiet/tranquil weather continues through Friday ahead of leading low
amplitude trough racing ewd through se Canada. Gusty sw winds
expected ahead of cold front in association with this sys in the
aftn as strong mixing propels temps to around 80.
Cold front to stall through cntrl IN Fri night in response to potent
secondary wave disturbance digging through the wrn lakes late Sat.
Upstream frontal wave development over IL may spurn a burst of
modest low level theta-e advection late Sat night to provide for
a period of showers and perhaps a storm albeit under the
presumptive guise that sufficient moisture return manifests
ahead of this system. Nonetheless large guidance spread here
warrants some pessimism wrt precip chances and will hold
conservative. Otherwise will drop Fri night mention in light of
shallow/stalling cold front settling south and lack of moisture.
THereafter fairly deep upper low develops ewd in time across the ern
lakes/New England by Mon. Broad/moist lake aggregate thermal trough
will promote some certain lake driven showers Sun night through Mon
night along with sharply colder temps. Post system drying follows
mid next week with a hard frost likely inland away from any lake
cloud influence, particularly Tue and Wed mornings.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 121 AM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024
Surface high pressure slowly shifts from north of the region to east
of the region through this TAF period. As such, expect predominant
east northeast winds that remain less than 10 kts through the
period. Additionally, expect plenty of dry air that leads to VFR
conditions.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...T
AVIATION...Roller
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 10, 2:00 AM EDT---------------
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