ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 11, 1:43 PM EDT377
FXUS61 KILN 111743
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
143 PM EDT Fri Oct 11 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
The center of surface high pressure over the middle and upper
Ohio Valley will move off to the southeast today while a cold
front begins to move southeast into the western Great Lakes.
This front will move south into the southern Great Lakes
tonight, stalling out there on Saturday. Low pressure and
another cold front will then move east through the region on
Sunday. A cooler airmass will settle into the region behind this
system for the start of the upcoming workweek.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
For today, surface high pressure centered over the middle and
upper Ohio Valley will move southeast. Meanwhile, a cold front
will begin to move southeast into the western Great Lakes.
Abundant sunshine is expected, and with a developing southwest
flow and WAA ahead of the cold front, it should warm up nicely
from our chilly lows. Highs will range from the lower 70s east
to the mid 70s west.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
For tonight, mid and high clouds will be on the increase from
the northwest as the cold front sags southward into the southern
Great Lakes. It will be milder as south to southwest winds stay
up a little. Lows will range from mid 40s southeast to the mid
50s northwest.
On Saturday, some warm, moist advection will interact with the
stalled out boundary near our northern CWFA. This may bring a
chance of showers, perhaps a thunderstorm, mainly in the
afternoon. Otherwise, skies will range from partly to mostly
cloudy. It will be warm south of the frontal boundary as
southerly flow continues. Highs will range from the lower 70s
across the far north and northeast, to the upper 70s and perhaps
around 80 degrees elsewhere.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Unsettled weather to kick off the long term period with a broad
area of low pressure expected across the lower Midwest and
Great Lakes. Warm air advection within a strengthening LLJ
drives showers and elevated thunderstorms along and north of
I-70 with the highest concentration currently forecast across
northern Ohio. Through the overnight, the activity drifts
southward, but coverage will become more scattered into daybreak
Sunday morning. Additional development is possible Sunday
afternoon as the front moves southward, but convergence along
the front is not overly strong, limiting coverage across
northern Kentucky and southern Ohio. Temperatures are warmest on
Sunday, with lower 80s forecast south of I-70.
Sunday evening through Sunday night, a much stronger shortwave
digs into the lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, deepening the
surface low pressure to the northeast. Wind gusts between 25 and
30 mph from the northwest drive cooler temperatures southward
behind the front. This energy and co-located moisture keeps
clouds and rain in the forecast through the day on Monday,
especially north of the Ohio River. Daytime highs are quite
chilly, about 10 degrees below normal for mid-October. High
pressure builds into the Midwest Monday night with some patchy
frost possible where winds are able to calm.
Another shortwave pivots through the base of the trough on
Tuesday, providing another enhancement to the winds and
reinforcing the below normal temperatures. High temperatures are
a few degrees cooler in comparison to Monday with the whole
area staying in the 50s. Slightly better chance for frost
Wednesday morning, but the pressure gradient likely keeps in
limited to the areas with lighter winds.
Temperatures rebound slightly on Wednesday, but they remain
below normal as northwesterly flow persists around the high
pressure passing to the south. Wednesday night, the high
pressure pivots to the south, likely providing the most
favorable conditions for frost development into Thursday
morning. High pressure shifts to the Mid- Atlantic on Thursday,
turning winds out of the southwest. This will kick off a warming
trend that will continue into the end of the week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Aviation forecast remains VFR except at LUK where BR and FG may
reduce visibility late tonight to Saturday morning. Otherwise,
high pressure moving east will keep SKC through tonight, before
clouds increase on Saturday ahead of a cold front sagging from
the north. Winds staying under 10 knots will be from the south
to southwest.
OUTLOOK...Showers and gusty winds possible Sunday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hickman
NEAR TERM...Coniglio
SHORT TERM...Hickman
LONG TERM...McGinnis
AVIATION...Coniglio
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 11, 1:43 PM EDT---------------
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