NHC issues Tropical Cyclone Discussion (TCD) at Oct 9, 7:00 PM AST987
WTNT43 KNHC 091453
TCDAT3
Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024
1100 AM AST Wed Oct 09 2024
Visible, infrared and some recent microwave images suggest that the
center of the small tropical cyclone continues to be located
underneath the middle of the central dense overcast. In fact, some
of the recent frames have hinted at a ragged eye feature. The TAFB
and SAB subjective Dvorak estimates are a consensus T-4.5/77 kt.
The initial intensity is increased to 75 kt, in best agreement with
the Dvorak estimates.
Leslie's initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 305/9
kt. A gradual turn to the north is expected in about 36 h as
Leslie rounds the southwestern and western periphery of a
subtropical ridge to the east. Afterward, Leslie should accelerate
toward the northeast in response to a strong trough approaching the
cyclone from the northwest. The NHC forecast is nearly identical
to the previous one and lies near the TVCN and HCCA consensus
models.
Leslie is forecast to remain in a favorable environment for another
12-18 h. The intensity forecast has been increased to an 85-kt
peak at hour 12 and 24, and it is possible that it could strengthen
a bit more than that, as suggested by the HAFS-B model. By hour
24, Leslie is expected to run into a wall of strong northerly
shear caused by a strengthening upper-level anticyclone in between
Milton and Leslie. The shear is expected to cause Leslie to
rapidly weaken during the 24 to 48 h period. While it is possible
that Leslie could lose most of its convection in 2 to 3 days, the
latest GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery show periodic
bursts of convection continuing into Day 4. However, Leslie is
likely to merge with a front and become extratropical in 3 to 4
days, and a transition to an extratropical cyclone is
forecast at the end of that period.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/1500Z 21.7N 48.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 22.5N 49.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 23.4N 49.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 24.6N 50.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 11/1200Z 26.4N 49.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 12/0000Z 28.7N 47.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 12/1200Z 31.1N 44.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 13/1200Z 34.5N 35.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 14/1200Z 35.9N 26.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
Forecaster Hagen
Source:
NHC issues Tropical Cyclone Discussion (TCD) at Oct 9, 7:00 PM AST---------------
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