LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 12, 10:27 PM EDT897
FXUS63 KLMK 130227
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1027 PM EDT Sat Oct 12 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Warmer temperatures and dry weather continues into tonight.
* Breezy and very isolated showers along and east of US-127 on
Sunday.
* Turning much cooler next week with widespread frost likely
Tuesday and Wednesday nights.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1027 PM EDT Sat Oct 12 2024
Evening satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies across the
region. Temperatures were in the lower to middle 60s across the LMK
forecast area. We do have some of our cooler valley locations
coming in a bit cooler with lower-middle 50s. Current forecast
remains on track for the overnight hours. Products have been
refreshed with new observational data and blended into the ongoing
forecast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 314 PM EDT Sat Oct 12 2024
An upper level trough over central Canada this afternoon is forecast
to amplify as it drops southeast over Ontario, the Upper Midwest,
and Great Lakes tonight and Sunday. A 1012 mb sfc low currently over
southern Iowa is forecast to move east along an existing quasi-
stationary boundary through northern portions of IL/IN/OH. This wave
of low pressure will gradually deepen tonight through Sunday with
the arrival of stronger divergence aloft downstream of the upper
trough.
Central KY and southern IN will be positioned south of the sfc low
and trailing cold front through Sunday morning. Low-level SW flow
will continue to increase this evening and overnight in the warm
sector. Despite the arrival of a potent 40+ kt SW low-level jet
early Sunday, dry weather remains likely. Low-level moisture return
is relatively meager, and a strong low-level inversion will be in
place. In fact, this inversion will remain in place through much of
Sunday.
As for sensible weather, tonight will be dry with mostly clear to
partly cloudy skies. It will be notably milder than previous nights
due to increasing southerly winds. Sunday morning lows will be in
the mid 50s to lower 60s.
Sunday morning will start off dry and breezy with partly sunny
skies. The sfc cold front pushes southeast through the forecast area
during the afternoon and evening hours. Forecast soundings show some
weak CIN lingering even into the late afternoon. Sfc dewpoints creep
up to near 60 F in a narrow pool of moisture along the front. We
could realize 1000+ J/kg of CAPE above the weakening inversion
across south-central KY and the Bluegrass Region. Our far eastern
and southeastern CWA will have the best chance at seeing a brief
shower/storm late in the day. However, low-level forcing isn't all
that strong and moisture availability is decent at best. Most areas
will stay mainly dry with fropa, with only a 10-15% chance for rain
late in the day southeast of a BWG to LEX line. Sunday will be the
last warm day, with highs topping out in the upper 70s to lower 80s
prior to fropa.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 314 PM EDT Sat Oct 12 2024
Sunday Night - Thursday Night...
An anomalous trough envelops the eastern CONUS through the early
week timeframe. This will result in below normal temperatures
through mid week, and mostly dry conditions. One exception to the
dry conditions will be Tuesday, where a shortwave embedded in the
parent trough rotates through the area. This will drag a secondary
cold front through to reinforce the cold air, and could trigger some
light shower activity as well. Will be introducing a 20% chance of
light rain showers across our NE CWA to account for this as models
have been fairly consistent with this chance the past few runs.
Outside of that, the main focus will be on the cool days and cold
nights, and their respective frost/freeze potential through mid week.
Still looks like the coldest nights of the forecast period, and of
the season so far, will be Tuesday and Wednesday nights. Strong 1028-
1030mb Canadian high pressure builds into the area by then with good
radiational cooling prospects both nights. The surface high looks to
be settled a little more directly overhead on Wednesday
night/Thursday morning, so have been trending that night a bit
cooler as pattern recognition would suggest this should yield some
cooler spots than Tuesday night. Regardless, either night should
have a high likelihood of frost potential. Although the chance for
freezing temperatures is a bit lower, LREF probabilities suggest a
20-30% chance in the eastern CWA either night. The bottom line is
that Frost headlines are likely, while Freeze headlines remain
possible both of these nights.
Daytime highs will also be notably cooler early to mid week. Steady
cold advection and some lingering stratocu across our NE CWA will
only allow for upper 50s and low 60s. Farther SW outside of the
stratocu deck, look for a better chance at mid 60s across the SW
CWA. Highs on Monday will be around 20 degrees cooler than Sunday!
Even cooler highs follow on Tuesday and Wednesday as more of the
area will be confined to the mid and upper 50s. Only areas down
around Bowling Green are expected to still reach into the lower 60s.
The upper pattern begins to transition on Thursday as a ridge axis
begins to build in from the SW. Meanwhile, the surface high will be
shifting east, and heights/thicknesses will slowly begin to rise. As
a result, highs on Thursday recover back into the mid and upper 60s
after a cold start Thursday morning. Thursday night, some
patchy frost may still be a possibility in the coolest spots.
Friday - Saturday...
Milder and dry conditions continue late week into the first part of
the weekend as the upper ridge becomes established over our area,
and a slight warm advection component kicks in on the western edge
of the retreating surface high. Highs back in the low to mid 70s
seem reasonable by this time.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 717 PM EDT Sat Oct 12 2024
VFR conditions are expected for the upcoming TAF period. For the
overnight period, the main issue will be low-level wind shear. With
a cold front approaching from the northwest late tonight, model
soundings show the flow in the lower part of the atmosphere ramping
up. It appears that we'll see LLWS in the 13/06-13/12Z time frame.
After sunrise, we'll see good mixing which will allow that higher
momentum air to reach the surface. Surface gusts of 20-25kts are
expected during the day on Sunday after 13/14Z and will continue
into the evening before slacking off.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......MJ
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM....BJS
AVIATION.....MJ
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 12, 10:27 PM EDT---------------
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