IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 11, 12:50 PM EDT878
FXUS63 KIND 111650
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1250 PM EDT Fri Oct 11 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Clear skies today with above normal temperatures through
Saturday
- Coldest air of the Fall arrives early next week with frost
possible on a few mornings
- Other than low chances for showers Saturday into early Sunday, dry
weather will persist
&&
.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 918 AM EDT Fri Oct 11 2024
- Sunny and Pleasant; Highs in the upper 70s to near 80.
- Marginal Fire Weather danger with min RH's around 30%
Surface analysis late this morning shows strong high pressure in
place over southern OH, eastern KY and WV. A cold front was found
stretching from NW WI to Central NB. GOES16 shows clear skies across
Central Indiana and much of the Ohio Valley. Aloft, northwest
Pacific flow was in place across the northern plains states before
spilling SE to Indiana and Ohio. Water Vapor showed subsidence in
place across KY, Southern IL, MO and TN. Southeast to southerly
surface flow was in place and dew point temps were in the upper 30s
and lower 40s.
Forecast soundings this afternoon show a dry column in place with
unreachable convective temperatures. The strong surface high to the
east will continue to control Indiana/s weather as it sags southward
to the deep south. Aloft the NW flow will continue with little to no
forcing in place. Thus a sunny day is in store and the ongoing
forecast handles this well. Some warm air advection begins today as
more westerly flow develops aloft and southerly flow within the
lower levels. This, along with plentiful sunshine, should allow for
highs to reach values slightly above persistence. Highs will reach
the upper 70s to around 80.
Good mixing and heating this afternoon will allow for RH values to
fall to around 30%. However wind speeds will remain around 10 mph.
This will result in a marginal fire weather threat this afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Fri Oct 11 2024
Current surface analysis shows strong high pressure centered over
the region providing quiet weather conditions. Clear skies and
light winds has helped temperatures cool quickly overnight. Surface
observations shows most areas in mid 40s to low 50s with continued
cooling expected through daybreak. Look for temperatures to bottom
out in the low to mid 40s.
Surface high pressure will continue to keep the weather pattern
quiet through the period. Aloft, upper ridging should gradually
flatten as broad troughing overtakes the region. A noticeable
increase in mid-high clouds is likely tonight due to increasing
moisture aloft. Models also show a weak front approaching late
tonight towards daybreak Saturday which may struggle to make much
progress into central Indiana initially. Dry air in the low-levels
and an overall lack of moisture will inhibit precipitation despite
some low-level convergence.
Sunny skies and increasing southwesterly flow should help warm
temperatures into the upper 70s and low 80s by this afternoon. These
temperatures are about 10-15 degrees above normal. By tonight,
increasing clouds and slightly elevated winds may limit diurnal
cooling though temperatures will still fall well into the 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Fri Oct 11 2024
The long term will start off with a couple of warmer days before a
cold front moves through to bring in much cooler air. Some
precipitation across our northern counties will be possible with the
front. Most of next week will then be dry with a very gradual
warming trend towards next weekend.
Saturday is expected to see highs from near 80 to the mid 80s. A
cold front will then make it's way through central Indiana Sunday
with the affects of the associated CAA being better felt that night
as lows drop back into the 40s. The low with this system will be
tracking north of the area and much of the moisture will remain to
the north, but there is a chance for some rain to creep into our
CWA. Best chances for rain will be across the northern counties
Saturday night into Sunday morning. Confidence is on the the lower
end as the dry air in place will be difficult to overcome and model
soundings are showing a decent amount of dry air aloft with the
front. An additional chance for rain or sprinkles will come Monday,
again for our northern counties, in the form of backside moisture as
the low pushes eastward.
We can more confidently say that temperatures will drop behind the
front thanks to significant CAA, bringing highs only in the upper
50s to low 60s on Monday. Frost and even freezing temperatures will
be a concern the first few nights of the work week, so sensitive
plants may have to be covered. Surface high pressure will also
accompany the cooler temperatures; models show that it will be a
large high pressure system, taking up much of eastern U.S. which
will provide another stretch of dry and quiet weather for much of
next week. We will have to watch out for elevated fire weather
danger next week due to forecast Min RH values near 30% as well as
some breezy days possible.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1250 PM EDT Fri Oct 11 2024
Impacts: None; VFR Conditions expected.
Discussion:
VFR conditions will continue through this period. High pressure in
place over KY and TN will continue to dominate our weather through
this period, providing unlimited cigs through Saturday morning.
Forecast soundings show a dry column through Saturday morning.
A cold front found over the upper midwest will sag southward toward
Central Indiana by Saturday afternoon. This will result in the
arrival for high CI clouds on Saturday afternoon. This will still
remain VFR.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Puma
SHORT TERM...Melo
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...Puma
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 11, 12:50 PM EDT---------------
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