ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 10, 1:38 AM EDT926
FXUS61 KILN 100538
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
138 AM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure and a dry airmass will remain in control of the
weather through the end of the week. A few showers will be
possible on Sunday into early next week as a cold front moves
through the region. Much cooler air is expected to settle into
the region early next week, with much below normal temperatures
possible during this stretch.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
High pressure located over the northern Great Lakes continues to
provide calm and quiet conditions for the area. Temperatures
continue to fall rapidly as radiational cooling processes take
over. Have put out a SPS for patchy frost for a handful of
counties in central Ohio where overnight lows dip into the mid
30s. Additionally, river valley fog across the CWA is likely
where moisture is more abundant.
Previous discussion--> High pressure and a dry airmass will
lead to another night of light winds, clear skies and good
radiational cooling. Lows tonight will again be in the upper 30s
to mid 40s, with some mid 30s possible in outlying areas. This
could lead to some patchy frost development late tonight.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Mainly clear skies will continue through the short term period.
Low level flow will transition more to the northeast through
Thursday morning and this will allow for some weak CAA to
develop. As a result, temperatures will be a little cooler with
highs on Thursday in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Lows Thursday
night will be in the mid 30s to lower 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure will remain in control of a dry forecast until a cold
front lays out over northern Ohio on Saturday, followed by a low
pressure center. This low will develop over IL and track east
through the southern Great Lakes on Sunday and Sunday night. Some
rain may accompany this low pressure system, generally over the
northern half of the CWA and expected to be light in nature.
In the wake of the low, northerly winds will pull moisture off of
Lakes Michigan and Erie to bring some shower activity close to
northern sections of the CWA. A significant upper low is noted
during this time, but tropical influences in the near term are
likely polluting model mass fields at this time of the forecast.
However it works, after a cool start Thursday night, mild
temperatures will prevail through Saturday night, and then cool off
significantly in the wake of the surface low and associated cold
front. Highs from Monday onwards should be in the 50s, with lows in
the mid 30s.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions expected across the TAF sites through the next 24
hours, except at KLUK where river valley fog is once again
expected to develop after 07Z or so. There remains above average
uncertainty considering the background setup appears rather
favorable but guidance remains a little conservative on the
formation of valley fog. Based on this, have maintained an MVFR
visibility restriction but could very well see IFR visibility
at LUK at any point the 08Z-13Z time period. A few cumulus may
drift into central Ohio later this morning on light northeast
flow, but overall another day of clear/sunny skies and light
northeast to east winds is expected through the TAF period. Do
expect another round of valley fog after 06Z on Friday morning,
which will be addressed in the next TAF issuance.
OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...CA/JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...Coniglio
AVIATION...Binau
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 10, 1:38 AM EDT---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
