IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 6, 6:24 AM EDT205
FXUS63 KIWX 061024
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
624 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Elevated fire risk for brush and field fires this afternoon
due to dry, mild and windy conditions.
* Dry pattern continues into the upcoming work week.
* Warm conditions continue today followed by cooler (near
normal) temperatures for Monday to Wednesday. Temperatures
warm again to above normal late work week into next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 340 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024
For today...Strong upper level short wave will continue to
track across northern Wisconsin into northern Lower Michigan
this morning. Pre-frontal shower development has been a struggle
as a warm 800-700 mb layer associated with an elevated mixed
layer has limited extent of instability realized. Any potential
isolated shower would be very high based in this setup, and high
based nature would likely limit coverage/intensity of any
development. May keep just some slight chance PoPs across
southern Lower MI for a few hours early this morning. Sfc cold
front at 07Z extends from far SE Wisconsin into west central
Illinois. This front will be progressive through midday and
likely to shift east of far NE Indiana/NW Ohio Counties after
17Z. Favored diurnal timing for convection developing along this
front still appears to be well east of the local area into
eastern Ohio and will continue with a dry forecast. Despite the
early frontal passage today, deep post frontal mixing should
delay temp drops a bit behind the front. Some lower 80s are
possible briefly across far northeast Indiana/NW Ohio south of
US-24 before stronger cold advection takes over later in the
afternoon.
Intrusion of stratospheric air into the mid troposphere on western
flank of aforementioned Great Lakes upper trough and low/mid level
subsidence should act to enhance the post-frontal dry air advection
today leading to fire weather concerns. Still some question into
extreme northeast Indiana and northwest Ohio on timing of the
sharper dew point drops, and some limited moisture recovery of low
level dew points could occur downwind of Lake Michigan. However,
most of the area does appear to drop to afternoon min RH's of 20-30
percent this afternoon leading to an elevated fire risk in terms of
the potential of brush and field fires when combined with strong
post-frontal wind gusts to around 30 mph. More details on the fire
weather forecast for this afternoon can be found in the fire weather
section below.
For tonight,,,wind gusts subside this evening but continued cold
advection overnight will allow some degree of low level mixing to
continue. This should prevent temps from bottoming out more than the
mid 40s. Some patchy stratocu is possible also, particularly
across northern half of the area more entrenched in low level
thermal trough.
For Monday through Wednesday...subtle mid level height rises and
core of low level thermal trough shifting into the eastern Great
Lakes should provide near normal/slightly below normal temperatures.
Despite cooler temperatures this period, airmass will remain quite
dry with low afternoon min RH values. Winds during this period
should be on the light side however due to expansive low level
anticyclone from the Great Lakes to the Ohio Valley. This should
limit extent of fire weather concerns for this period.
For Friday into next weekend...medium range guidance continues to
indicate this period characterized by better progression of central
CONUS mid/upper ridging, This leads to continued high confidence in
warming trend back to above normal levels. Depending on timing of
this evolution, may need to further adjust temps up
Friday/Saturday with a potential of some low-mid 80s high
temperatures during this period. Of lower confidence is any
additional precip chances next weekend. Some indication of an
upper short wave dampening with ridge with potential fropa, but
will continue to hold off on mentionable PoPs late this period
due to a large deterministic/ensemble spread.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 624 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024
A low pressure system is expected to push a cold front through the
area this morning, but the front is expected to be dry. The airmass
behind the front is even drier still and this should allow for
prevailing VFR conditions through the TAF period. With the strong
gradient along the front and sunny skies allowing for mixing, expect
gusty winds between 25 and 30 kts during the day today. Initially
southerly and southwesterly winds become more northwesterly behind
the front.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 340 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024
A cold front pushes through today with a dry passage and minimal
rainfall. Plenty of sunny skies and mixing allows for gusty winds
reaching 25 to 30 mph this afternoon. Behind the front, dew points
are expected to drop into the 30s and there could be a few areas
that dew points fall into the 20s yielding min RH values around
20 percent. An area south of US-30 and west of IN-15 and
another area north of US-30 and east of I-69 both have 25 to 50
percent of normal precipitation for the time period over the
last 30 days. These areas have been devoid of rain since early
September or even late August. Meanwhile, wetter, near normal
precipitation deficits exist in areas north of US-30 and west of
IN-15 as well as south of US-24. The wetter areas like in NW IN
allude to wetter fuels as indicated by the 10 hour fuels data
there. However, wouldn't be surprised if there are drier 10 hour
fuels in the drier areas where observational data is more
devoid. Given these parameters, can see grassy and finer fuels
becoming an issue today where fires start and these could
quickly get out of control, especially with the gusty winds and
antecedant dry conditions. If you are planning to burn brush or
harvest crops, use extreme caution during the afternoon. Also
make sure to follow any burn bans that may be in place.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Monday for LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Marsili
AVIATION...Roller
FIRE WEATHER...Roller
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 6, 6:24 AM EDT---------------
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