NHC issues Tropical Cyclone Discussion (TCD) at Oct 8, 4:00 AM CDT992
WTNT44 KNHC 080834
TCDAT4
Hurricane Milton Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
400 AM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024
The structure of Milton has changed significantly overnight. The
pinhole eye seen yesterday has filled and earlier aircraft data
showed a double eyewall structure. More recent microwave images
show only one larger eyewall, and it is clear that Milton is
completing an eyewall replacement cycle. These eyewall replacement
cycles are common in strong hurricanes and often cause the peak
winds to fluctuate, while the wind field generally expands. Based
on the aircraft data from a few hours ago, the initial intensity is
set at 135 kt. Both the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters are
scheduled to investigate Milton again later this morning.
The major hurricane is beginning to gain latitude, and the latest
initial motion estimate is 075/10 kt. A turn to the northeast with
a slight increase in forward speed is expected later today and
Wednesday as the hurricane moves in the flow between a trough
digging into the Gulf of Mexico and a ridge near the Greater
Antilles. This motion should take the core of Milton to
west-central Florida Wednesday night. After the hurricane passes
Florida, a faster east-northeastward motion is expected within a
more zonal steering flow. Little change was made to the track
forecast through landfall, but this prediction is a little slower
while the system enters and moves over the Atlantic.
Fluctuations in strength due to continued structural changes are
likely during the next day or so while Milton moves across the
central and eastern Gulf of Mexico. An increase in vertical wind
shear will likely cause some weakening before the hurricane reaches
Florida, but there is high confidence that Milton will remain an
extremely dangerous hurricane when it reaches the state. After
landfall, more notable weakening is forecast and Milton is now
expected to become extratropical by day 3 when it is over the
Atlantic. The NHC intensity forecast lies at the high end of the
model guidance in best agreement with the hurricane regional models.
Milton is still a relatively compact hurricane, but the wind field
is expected to continue to grow in size as it approaches Florida.
In fact, the official forecast shows the hurricane and
tropical-storm-force winds roughly doubling in size by the time it
makes landfall. Therefore, damaging winds, life-threatening storm
surge, and heavy rainfall will extend well outside the forecast
cone. It is worth emphasizing that this is a very serious situation
and residents in Florida should closely follow orders from their
local emergency management officials. Milton has the potential to
be one of the most destructive hurricanes on record for west-central
Florida.
Key Messages:
1. Damaging hurricane-force winds and a life-threatening storm surge
with destructive waves are expected across portions of the northern
coast of the Yucatan Peninsula today.
2. Milton is expected to grow in size and remain an extremely
dangerous hurricane when it approaches the west coast of Florida on
Wednesday. A large area of destructive storm surge will occur along
parts of the west coast of Florida. This is an extremely
life-threatening situation and residents in those areas should
follow advice given by local officials and evacuate immediately if
told to do so.
3. Devastating hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of
the west coast of Florida, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect.
Milton is forecast to remain a hurricane as it crosses the Florida
Peninsula and life-threatening hurricane-force winds, especially in
gusts, are expected to spread inland across the peninsula.
Preparations to protect life and property in the warning areas
should be complete by tonight.
4. Areas of heavy rainfall will continue to impact portions of
Florida well ahead of Milton through early Thursday. This rainfall
brings the risk of life-threatening flash, urban and aerial
flooding along with moderate to major river flooding. Flooding will
be exacerbated in areas where coastal and inland flooding combine to
increase the overall threat.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/0900Z 22.3N 88.9W 135 KT 155 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 22.9N 87.5W 140 KT 160 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 24.2N 85.8W 135 KT 155 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 26.0N 84.2W 125 KT 145 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 27.6N 82.6W 110 KT 125 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
60H 10/1800Z 28.8N 79.9W 70 KT 80 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 11/0600Z 29.7N 76.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 12/0600Z 30.4N 69.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 13/0600Z 31.5N 63.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
Source:
NHC issues Tropical Cyclone Discussion (TCD) at Oct 8, 4:00 AM CDT---------------
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