NHC issues Tropical Cyclone Discussion (TCD) at Oct 6, 1:00 PM AST679
WTNT42 KNHC 060850
TCDAT2
Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024
500 AM AST Sun Oct 06 2024
Kirk continues to show the ill effects of increasing southwesterly
shear. Earlier scatterometer data and recent satellite images
suggest the hurricane is vertically tilted, with the low-level
center displaced to the southwest of the mid-level circulation. The
eye feature that was evident earlier today has filled, and satellite
intensity estimates are decreasing. Kirk's initial intensity is
estimated to be 90 kt, in best agreement with a T5.0 Dvorak Current
Intensity estimate from TAFB and recent UW-CIMSS D-MINT and D-PRINT
estimates. The wind radii of Kirk were made slightly larger based
on partial data from a 0014 UTC ASCAT-C overpass.
Kirk is expected to continue weakening during the next several days
due to the negative influences of increasing vertical wind shear,
decreasing SSTs, and a progressively drier mid-level environment.
However, the expansive wind field of Kirk should remain large while
the cyclone acquires frontal characteristics and transitions to an
extratropical cyclone by 48 h. It is possible that the hostile
conditions could cause Kirk to lose organized convection and become
post-tropical even sooner than forecast. The updated NHC intensity
forecast was adjusted downward to follow the latest HCCA and IVCN
consensus trends.
The hurricane is moving north-northeastward (015/20 kt) within the
flow between an eastern Atlantic subtropical ridge and a deep-layer
trough to the west of Kirk. The various track models agree that Kirk
will continue accelerating deeper into the mid-latitudes while
turning northeastward and east-northwestward over the next few days.
The NHC forecast is very similar to the previous prediction, showing
the center of Kirk passing north of the Azores Monday night into
Tuesday as an extratropical cyclone and moving over western Europe
during the middle of the week.
Large swells from Kirk are propagating far away from the hurricane
and bringing an increased risk of dangerous surf and rip currents to
portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas,
Bermuda, the U.S. East Coast, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are
expected to spread toward the Azores on Monday. For more information
on this hazard, see products issued by your local weather office.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/0900Z 33.5N 49.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 36.2N 47.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 39.6N 42.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 42.2N 36.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 43.4N 29.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 08/1800Z 43.9N 20.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 09/0600Z 45.5N 10.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 10/0600Z 51.5N 7.5E 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
Source:
NHC issues Tropical Cyclone Discussion (TCD) at Oct 6, 1:00 PM AST---------------
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