ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 6, 11:05 AM EDT360
FXUS61 KILN 061505
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1105 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon
into early evening in eastern parts of the area as a cold front
moves through the region. Dry conditions will return for the
remainder of the upcoming week as high pressure builds across
most of the United States. Near normal, to slightly below
normal, temperatures are on tap through the week with bountiful
sunshine.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Progressive mid level shortwave to pivot thru the Great Lakes
today. Associated relatively strong surface cold front
currently pushing across Indiana to drop east-southeast across
the area this aftn. Model solutions a little slower with frontal
passage. Storm chances are expected to be confined to a
relatively small window late this afternoon into early evening.
Pressure gradient tightens with good low level moisture
advection ahead of the front - with dewpoints in the lower to
mid 60s.
Moderate instability develops with convective initiation
expected east of the I-71 corridor around 21z. Given moderate
instability and seasonably strong deep-layer shear - there
should some organization to the storms along the leading edge of
the front. The potential for a strong to severe storm or two
exists late afternoon into early evening in the far east. Then
main threats are strong winds and large hail.
Temperatures today will be warm by seasonal standards, with
highs between 80 and 85.
Also, with drier air filtering in from the NW in the post
frontal environment, RH values are expected to dip below 25%
for a brief period late in the day. This combined with gusty
northwest winds on the order of 25 kts, will create elevated
fire weather conditions across West Central Ohio. Will continue
a mention in the HWO and an SPS for this potential.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
The aforementioned storm threat should linger locally through
about 00-01z before the activity pushes off to the SE through
the remainder of the evening/overnight. This will yield to dry
conditions area-wide of the remainder of the short term period
as drier air and high pressure settle into the region for the
start of the workweek. NW winds this evening will subside and go
more northerly overnight, with mainly clear skies expected.
This will allow for temps to dip into the mid to upper 40s area-
wide by Monday.
There may be a few clouds in the N by daybreak Monday, with some
afternoon Cu possible as well. However, there is quite a bit of
dry air in the profile, so coverage may be limited to only a few
Cu by the afternoon as highs top out in the upper 60s... a few
degrees below seasonal norms.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A steady state is in store through Thursday night under the
influence of a large high pressure system. Highs near 70 and lows in
the lower 40s under generally clear skies will be the norm.
Friday will see the axis of the high pass to the east, and return
flow will be accompanied with a slight rise in H5 heights to see a
slight bump in highs to the lower 70s. Overnight lows will range
from 50 in the northwest to the lower 40s in the southeast. Stronger
southwest wind on Saturday will offset a steady or slight drop in
upper heights, with highs warming to the mid 70s and lows ranging 2-
3 degrees on either side of 50.
The tail end of the forecast on day 7 looks to have low pressure
track northeast along a stationary front in northern Ohio. Cloud
cover will drop highs a little, into the lower 70s. A chance of rain
is also warranted at this time, but a good amount of leeway should
be given to temps and the mass fields this far out.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Mostly clear skies should be maintained through the first few
hours of the TAF period.
The main item of interest through the TAF period is going to be
the progression of a somewhat sharp front through the area
during the afternoon into early evening, which may yield some
ISO/SCT SHRA/TSRA in central OH for KCMH/KLCK between about
21z-23z or so. Cannot completely rule out some stray activity
extending a bit further to the SW toward KILN during the same
time frame, but have maintained a dry fcst at the site for now.
Of course, some brief/sudden VSBY reductions will be possible in
the SHRA/TSRA, but uncertainties regarding timing and spatial
extent have inhibited inclusion in any TEMPO groups for now. The
front will be accompanied by a somewhat narrow VFR Cu field,
but skies should trend clearer fairly quickly by 00z once again
in the post-frontal environment.
The approach, and subsequent passage, of the front will yield a
steady increase in the winds by mid morning through early
afternoon. Light southerly flow around 10kts early this morning
will go more out of the SW by 15z, increasing to around 15kts,
with gusts 20-25kts, by 18z just about everywhere. Winds will
gradually go more westerly by 21z and northwesterly by 00z
before subsiding toward the end of the period to less than
10kts.
OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...Franks
AVIATION...KC
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 6, 11:05 AM EDT---------------
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