NHC issues Tropical Cyclone Discussion (TCD) at Oct 7, 1:00 AM AST554
WTNT43 KNHC 062035
TCDAT3
Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024
500 PM AST Sun Oct 06 2024
Leslie's satellite imagery has become a little more ragged as
southwesterly shear has disrupted the overall convective pattern.
The deep inner core convection has become a little more broken the
last few hours. Subjective and objective estimates range from 75 to
85 kt, with a T4.5 from both TAFB and SAB. Based on these
satellite estimates, the initial intensity is held at 80 kt.
Leslie is moving northwestward (310/8 kt) while being steered by a
subtropical ridge over the eastern Atlantic. The ridge will continue
to build to the northeast of the system, which should steer the
hurricane northwestward throughout the forecast period. Models
continue to be in good agreement, the NHC track forecast is very
similar to the previous which remains near the latest consensus
aids.
The hurricane has started to enter a more hostile environment.
Southwesterly shear has started to increase, with drier mid-levels,
and upper-level convergence along the forecast path. The latest NHC
forecast follows the latest model trends with gradual weakening
beginning on Monday. Since Leslie is a relatively small tropical
cyclone, it could be more susceptible to these negative factors and
weaken even faster than the NHC forecast later in the period, as
suggested by some of the global and hurricane regional models.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/2100Z 14.0N 38.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 14.9N 39.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 16.2N 41.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 17.6N 43.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 19.0N 44.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 09/0600Z 20.3N 46.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 09/1800Z 21.2N 47.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 10/1800Z 22.5N 50.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 11/1800Z 24.1N 51.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
$$
Forecaster Kelly
Source:
NHC issues Tropical Cyclone Discussion (TCD) at Oct 7, 1:00 AM AST---------------
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