ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 5, 10:35 PM EDT782
FXUS61 KILN 060235
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1035 PM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry conditions will continue overnight into Sunday morning as
high pressure pushes across the Great Lakes. A few showers and
thunderstorms will be possible Sunday afternoon in eastern parts
of the area as a cold front moves through the region. Dry
conditions will return for the remainder of next week as high
pressure builds across most of the United States.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
High pressure at the surface and aloft will continue to move
east of the region tonight. Meanwhile, a mid level trough and
its associated surface cold front will push east into the
western Great Lakes and middle Mississippi Valley. Skies should
stay mainly clear overnight with perhaps some FEW-SCT high level
clouds moving in from the northwest around day break. Winds
will increase some as the pressure gradient starts to tighten
and winds veer from southeast to south. Some local gusts could
occur across our northwest zones late.
Temperatures will be milder with lows from the lower 50s east
to the lower 60s west.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
Progressive mid level shortwave to track through the Great
Lakes with a fairly strong surface front pushing thru ILN/s area
Sunday afternoon. Moderate instability develops across ILN/s
eastern counties with the front to the I-71 corridor by 18Z.
Shower and thunderstorm chances should be highest east of the
front across Central and South Central Ohio and Northeast
Kentucky late in the afternoon into very early evening. The
environment supports some organization to storms - mainly along
the leading edge of the front. A few of the storms could become
strong to severe late in the day across the far east prior to
the front moving out of the ILN FA. The main threats will be
wind and hail.
Temperatures on Sunday will be warm, with highs from 80 to 85.
Southwest winds of 15 to 20 mph will gust to 25 to 30 mph prior
to shifting west with the frontal passage.
Any convection that develops in the far east will end early in
the evening and skies will clear behind the front as drier air
advects into the region on northwest winds. Temperatures to drop
to lows in the mid and upper 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure will gradually build in from the west Monday
through Wednesday. Light northerly flow persists while the
center of the high remains to the west. Accordingly, the
forecast highs and lows remain on the cool side through
Wednesday night. Generally, highs will be in the upper 60s and
lows will be in the 40s. Mostly clear skies are expected.
Temperatures start to moderate the second half of the week when
the surface high shifts just east of the Ohio Valley. Southerly
flow redevelops which will help highs moderate through the 70s
to near 80 by next weekend. Mostly clear skies and dry
conditions persist.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure at the surface and aloft will continue to move
east of the region tonight. Meanwhile, a mid level trough and
its associated surface cold front will push east into the
western Great Lakes and middle Mississippi Valley. Skies should
stay mainly clear overnight with perhaps some FEW-SCT high level
clouds moving in from the northwest around 12Z. Winds will
increase some as the pressure gradient starts to tighten and
winds veer from southeast to south. Some local gusts could occur
at KDAY by 13Z. With calm winds due to decoupling, KLUK may see
a brief period of MVFR visibilities due to its proximity to the
Little Miami and Ohio River Valleys.
On Sunday, the mid level trough will move east across the
remainder of the Great Lakes. The associated cold front will
move east/southeast across the terminals in the afternoon and
early evening hours. There should be enough moisture,
instability, and convergence for a chance of showers and
thunderstorms near the KCMH/KLCK terminals between 20Z and 22Z.
Otherwise, a SCT-BKN VFR cumuliform deck will develop ahead of
the cold front. Winds will be the main impact for the terminals
as the veer from southwest to west to northwest with the
approach and subsequent passage of the cold front. Sustained
winds between 15 and 20 knots with gusts between 25 and 30 knots
can be expected during the afternoon and early evening hours.
With diurnal cooling, gustiness should diminish after 00Z
Monday. Mostly clear skies (VFR conditions) are expected in the
post frontal environment.
OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hickman/AR
NEAR TERM...Hickman/AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...Campbell
AVIATION...Hickman
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 5, 10:35 PM EDT---------------
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