IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 3, 2:08 PM EDT793
FXUS63 KIWX 031808
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
208 PM EDT Thu Oct 3 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Little if any rain expected over the next 7 to 10 days.
* Above normal temperatures through Sunday will give way to slightly
cooler conditions by early next week.
* Elevated fire risk for brush and field fires Sunday afternoon due
to dry, mild and breezy conditions.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 208 PM EDT Thu Oct 3 2024
A low amplitude shortwave trough will propagate east through the
western and central Great Lakes tonight into Friday. This will allow
an associated frontal boundary, currently draped from the Central
Plains northeast to northern lower MI, to slowly sink south and
weaken through the local area late tonight into early Friday
afternoon. A low level theta-e ridge, and more focused moisture
convergence, will remain locked up well to the west across
IL/MO/IA. Elevated fgen/moisture may survive into western
portions of our forecast area Friday morning with non-zero
chances for a few sprinkles or very light showers, though
lack of forcing and a dry sub-cloud layer precludes anything
more than a silent 10 PoP at this time. Slight cooler (near
normal) with clearing skies post-frontal Friday afternoon-night.
Temps recover nicely then into Saturday thanks to ample
sunshine and return flow on the backside of high pressure.
A stronger upper level shortwave and cold front still on target to
move through later Saturday night into Sunday. More prominent pre-
frontal forcing on the nose of an EML may clip our far northern
zones Sunday morning where low rain chances were retained. Re-
development along the primary cold front does look to be east of the
area by Sunday afternoon-evening with the focus turning to a
potential fire weather risk as RH's drop into the 20s/30s with post-
frontal cold advection pushing westerly gusts to 15-25 knots.
Cooler/seasonable temperatures return behind this system into
early next week on the backside of a developing northeast CONUS
longwave trough.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1257 PM EDT Thu Oct 3 2024
Prevailing VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period as
a mostly dry and calm (southwest winds around 5kt or less)
airmass resides in place. A weak frontal boundary will approach
the area after sunrise tomorrow. Have opted to add VCSH to SBN
after 14Z to account for a few stray showers evident by recent
CAM guidance. Otherwise, BKN cloud deck of H100-H200 and light
north to northeast winds will be the only other things to note.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Steinwedel
AVIATION...Norman
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 3, 2:08 PM EDT---------------
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