JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 5, 2:16 PM EDT031
FXUS63 KJKL 051816
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
216 PM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A passing cold front brings a chance of showers to mainly
eastern parts of the area on Sunday evening and Sunday night.
- Temperatures will average 5 to 10 degrees above normal through
Sunday before typical autumn-like readings arrive on Monday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 209 PM EDT SAT OCT 5 2024
Forecast is still in good shape. Loaded in the latest observations
to make sure the near term grids were in line with ongoing
conditions. All updates have been published and sent to NDFD/web.
UPDATE Issued at 1110 AM EDT SAT OCT 5 2024
Fog has finally started to taper off between 10am and 11am this
morning. Loaded in the latest observations to make sure the near
term forecast was on track with the current observations. This
only resulted in minor changes. Otherwise, the forecast remains
well in shape. Did send out a new set of zones to remove morning
fog wording. All updates have been published and sent to
NDFD/web.
UPDATE Issued at 713 AM EDT SAT OCT 5 2024
Fog has been more extensive than previously predicted, warranting
an increase in fog coverage, especially over southeastern
Kentucky, through 9 to 10 AM EDT. No other substantial changes
were warranted to the forecast at this time.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 345 AM EDT SAT OCT 5 2024
Thermometers show yet another mild early October morning across
eastern Kentucky. Temperature readings range from the mid and
upper 50s north of the Mountain Parkway and along/west of the
Escarpment up to mainly the lower and middle 60s south of the
Mountain Parkway and in the vicinity of Lake Cumberland. Satellite
imagery shows tentacles of fog through most of the mainstem river
valleys and larger tributaries. The surface analysis shows a weak
cold front extending from Maine down through southern New
England, the DC Metro and then southwestward across the Southern
Appalachians to near/just north of the Tennessee-Kentucky border.
Behind this front, an ~1027 mb high pressure is situated over
Lower Michigan. Looking aloft, a departing 500H trough extends
from Quebec southward into Virginia and southwest to over the
southern Appalachians. To our west, a ridge axis stretches from
Texas northward into Manitoba. Further upstream, a deepening North
Pacific trough extends from Alberta southward into the Central
Rockies.
The cold front continues to sag southeast early this morning as weak
north to northeasterly flow causes drier air to filter across the
remainder of eastern Kentucky. High pressure will bring a placid
Saturday area-wide as it shifts into to over Eastern Canada and
the Appalachians. Low-level flow shifts southwesterly tonight and
begins to increase on Sunday as the amplifying North Pacific
trough charges into the Great Lakes overnight and into the Ohio
Valley on Sunday. A sharp surface cold front attends the trough,
reaching the I-64 corridor ~6 to 8 PM EDT and quickly dropping
southeast through the evening. The better forcing with this system
will remain to our northeast; however, hi-res CAMs both support a
narrow broken band of convection riding along the front. The
highest rain chances (30+ PoP) are over northeast Kentucky where
forcing will be slightly better. Model soundings show sufficiently
deep equilibrium levels for thunder if updrafts are able to
overcome dry air entrainment in the mid-levels.
In sensible terms, look for sunny skies area-wide today once the
valley fog lifts and dissipates (by 9 to 10 AM EDT for most affected
locations). Afternoon maximum temperatures are forecast to range
from the upper 70s to the lower 80s. Clear skies persist tonight
(except for some fog redevelopment in the typically-prone valley
locales) with temperatures cooling back off into the 50s. Sunny
skies return for most of the daylight hours on Sunday, boosting
temperatures back into the lower to middle 80s during the
afternoon. Along with those very mild temperatures, southwesterly
winds will pick up through the day with gusts frequently in the 10
20 mph range after mix out. Clouds and isolated to scattered
showers quickly advance upon the I-64 corridor by 6 to 7 PM EDT
and continue to progress southeastward through the evening. A
thunderstorm cannot be ruled out at a few locations, primarily
northeast of KY-15.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 326 AM EDT SAT OCT 5 2024
The forecast period begins with a negatively tilted trough pivoting
overhead into New England. At the surface, the low that's tied to
the upper-level trough is expected to move toward Hudson Bay with a
cold front extending all the way down to the Tennessee Valley. From
the transition of the short-term into long-term period, the weak
cold front will cross through the Commonwealth before exiting late
Sunday night. Surface high pressure will begin to nudge eastward for
the start of next week and will keep the forecast area dry through
the remainder of the period. However, post-frontal northwesterly
flow will advect colder temperatures into the region. As a result,
temperatures will feel very fall-like weather with highs climbing
into the upper-60s to low-70s and overnight lows falling into the
low to mid-40s with even colder temperatures in the sheltered
valleys.
Attention begins to shift toward a possible tropical system
developing in the Gulf early in the period that models have making
landfall in Florida early Wednesday morning. Due to the strong
presence of surface high pressure and upper-level ridging, the
potential hurricane will remain south of the area but increasing
temperatures and moisture will build into the area due to the
approach of the system. While presently not expected to pose a
threat to the CWA; this system should be monitored as changes in
track could have impacts to the area.
Overall, aside from an exiting cold front at the start of the
period, a deterministic forecast of high pressure will exist through
the period which will keep the forecast area dry and experiencing
October-like weather. However, don't want to leave out the chance of
a potential tropical system developing which could nudge itself into
the conversation for eastern Kentucky weather.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 214 PM EDT SAT OCT 5 2024
VFR will prevail throughout today. Fog is expected to develop in
valleys again tonight, but impacts at the TAF sites remain
uncertain. Based on the impacts experienced at SJS this morning,
went ahead and did lower their VIS down to IFR, though certainty
on this is still not high. High pressure will also be moving east
and winds will become more SWrly ahead of an incoming front, which
could also sway some of the fog development. Otherwise, winds
will be light and variable through tomorrow morning, becoming
predominately southwest between 5 and 12 mph by 18Z.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...JMW
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 5, 2:16 PM EDT---------------
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