NHC issues Tropical Cyclone Discussion (TCD) at Oct 6, 1:00 AM AST376
WTNT42 KNHC 052048
TCDAT2
Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024
500 PM AST Sat Oct 05 2024
Kirk continues to have a tight inner core, with deep convection
wrapping around the center. The eye has continued to become more
cloud filled, as shear increases over the system. The latest
subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates have held
mostly steady with this cycle, and the initial intensity is held at
105 kt.
Kirk continues to move northward and increase forward speed with an
estimated motion of (005/17 kt) between a trough located over the
west-central Atlantic and a subtropical ridge in the east Atlantic.
Model track guidance remains tightly clustered, although there has
been a slight shift southward as the system transitions and becomes
post-tropical. The NHC forecast track shows the center of Kirk
passing just to the north of the Azores on Monday as an
extratropical cyclone, and then moving across the northeastern
Atlantic and over western Europe by the middle of next week. The
official NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous
advisory, with a slight nudge southward towards the end of the
period following the consensus model trends.
Wind shear has started to increase over Kirk this afternoon, but the
inner core has been able to remain intact. However, the environment
will only continue to become more hostile as wind shear continues to
increase, with drier mid-level air, and cooler sea surface
temperatures. Therefore, steady weakening is forecast through early
next week. The system should lose tropical characteristics and
transition to a strong extratropical cyclone around 60 h. The
updated NHC intensity forecast is near the previous one in the near
term, with a slightly faster rate of weakening in agreement with the
latest HCCA and simple consensus aids.
Kirk is producing ocean swells that are propagating far away from
the hurricane. These large swells will likely increase the risk of
dangerous surf and rip currents across the Leeward Islands, Bermuda,
and the Greater Antilles beginning later today, much of the U.S.
East Coast, Atlantic Canada, and the Bahamas by Sunday, and the
Azores by Monday. For more information on this hazard, see products
issued by your local weather office.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/2100Z 29.6N 50.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 32.1N 49.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 35.8N 47.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 39.2N 42.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 42.0N 36.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 08/0600Z 43.5N 29.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 08/1800Z 44.3N 19.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 09/1800Z 47.7N .5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 10/1800Z 55.8N 14.9E 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
Forecaster Kelly
Source:
NHC issues Tropical Cyclone Discussion (TCD) at Oct 6, 1:00 AM AST---------------
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