National Hurricane Center issues ADVISORY 1 for TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN878
WTNT34 KNHC 051458
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fourteen Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND BRING THE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING
IMPACTS TO PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA NEXT WEEK...
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.1N 95.1W
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM W OF PROGRESO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
Interests in the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the Florida Peninsula,
the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas should monitor the
progress of this system.
Hurricane and Storm Surge watches will likely be required for
portions of Florida on Sunday.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Fourteen was located near latitude 22.1 North, longitude 95.1 West.
The depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 3 mph (6
km/h). A slow northeastward or east-northeastward motion is
expected during the next day or so. A faster east-northeastward to
northeastward motion is forecast by Monday and Tuesday. On the
forecast track, the depression is forecast to remain over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico through Sunday night, then move across
the south-central Gulf of Mexico on Monday and Tuesday, and approach
the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by midweek.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next few days. The
depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today and a
hurricane by early Monday. The system could become a major
hurricane while it moves across the central and eastern Gulf of
Mexico.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Tropical Depression Fourteen can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO
header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml
Rainfall: The system may produce rainfall of 2 to 4 inches across
portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba.
Areas of heavy rainfall will also impact portions of Florida Sunday
and Monday well ahead of the tropical system, with heavy rainfall
more directly related to the system expected by later Tuesday
through Wednesday. This rainfall brings the risk of flash, urban,
and areal flooding, along with minor to isolated moderate river
flooding.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Depression Fourteen, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf.
SURF: Swells generated by the system will begin to affect the coast
of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico today. These swells are expected
to spread northward and eastward along much of the Gulf Coast by
early next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Brown
Source:
National Hurricane Center issues ADVISORY 1 for TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN---------------
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