NHC issues Tropical Cyclone Discussion (TCD) at Oct 4, 1:00 AM AST680
WTNT43 KNHC 032038
TCDAT3
Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024
500 PM AST Thu Oct 03 2024
Leslie is becoming better organized this afternoon, but continues to
battle wind shear due to the outflow from Hurricane Kirk. The center
is becoming more well-defined on visible satellite imagery and
convection is increasing along the southern semi-circle. Subjective
Dvorak satellite estimates from TAFB and SAB show a Data-T number of
3.0, corresponding with the initial intensity of 45 kt.
The tropical storm is drifting westward at 270/5 kt along the
southern periphery of a subtropical ridge in the eastern Atlantic.
Leslie is forecast to move slowly westward over the next day or so
before gradually turning west-northwestward, then accelerating to
the northwest this weekend. Model guidance has shifted slightly
westward, and the official NHC track forecast has followed suit and
lies near the simple consensus aids.
Leslie has been slowly strengthening today. Steady strengthening is
expected over the next 36-48 hr as the shear from Hurricane Kirk
lessen, and Leslie moves through a more favorable atmospheric and
oceanic environment. The spread in model intensity guidance has
increased this afternoon, and the hurricane models have suggested
the potential for rapid strengthening. The official NHC intensity
forecast lies near the simple consensus aids, although it still
lies below some of the regional hurricane models and HCCA. The
intensity forecast will plateau by the end of the forecast period
as Leslie moves into the cold wake of Kirk.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/2100Z 10.1N 31.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 10.2N 32.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 10.5N 33.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 10.9N 35.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 11.7N 36.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 06/0600Z 12.6N 37.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 06/1800Z 13.7N 39.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 07/1800Z 16.3N 42.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 08/1800Z 19.3N 45.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
$$
Forecaster Kelly/E.Adams
Source:
NHC issues Tropical Cyclone Discussion (TCD) at Oct 4, 1:00 AM AST---------------
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