ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 3, 9:54 PM EDT971
FXUS61 KILN 040154
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
954 PM EDT Thu Oct 3 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build across the region and allow for dry
weather through the end of the week. Slim precipitation chances
and breezy conditions will return to the region on Sunday as a
cold front moves through the area. In the wake of the cold
front, seasonably cool and dry conditions will settle in for
early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Quiet night in store as surface high pressure continues to
reside over the region. Fog development is primarily favored
along the river valleys tonight. Any overland fog is expected to
be more patchy/shallow, so not anticipating any additional
products for the fog tonight.
Overnight lows will be a couple degrees warmer compared to last
night, with lows mainly in the 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
A weak system will track thru the Great Lakes in the westerly
mid level flow on Friday. Weak surface front to drop into the
area Friday aftn resulting in a wind shift from the south to the
north. Moisture is shallow and and forcing is very weak so
expect only some increased cloud cover. A few sprinkles cannot
be completely ruled out - mainly across the north but threat is
too low to mention in the forecast. Highs to top out from 75
north to 80 across the south.
Surface high pressure to build in behind this weak front Friday
night. Expect skies to become mainly clear with light north
winds. Lows to range from the upper 40s north to the lower 50s
south.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A large area of high pressure will provide dry weather on Saturday.
A strong cold front will bring the threat for showers and
thunderstorms on Sunday, though models have trended north with this
feature leading to decreased pops from the previous forecast. Wind
gusts could exceed 20 knots in the relatively tight pressure
gradient surrounding the front. High pressure and a dry airmass
return for Monday through Thursday.
Temperatures start above normal, with high in the mid and upper 70s
Saturday, boosted to the low and mid 80s Sunday by warm advection
ahead of the front. A notable round of cold advection behind the
front will allow highs in the mid 60s to low 70s for the remainder
of the period.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure resides across the region through the taf period.
Not expecting many terminals to experience fog tonight as it
appears to be more focused in the river valleys. Still
anticipating IFR vsbys developing at KLUK, and introduced a
TEMPO LIFR as well. Elsewhere, confidence is lower for any vsby
reductions, but kept a TEMPO mention at KCVG/KILN as those
terminals have a non-zero chance for fog developing.
A subtle wind shift expected by tomorrow as winds will be more
out of the northwest, generally around 5 kts.
OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...Clark
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...Coniglio
AVIATION...Clark
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 3, 9:54 PM EDT---------------
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