MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 3, 11:56 PM CDT ...New AVIATION...570
FXUS64 KMOB 040456
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1156 PM CDT Thu Oct 3 2024
...New AVIATION...
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1153 PM CDT Thu Oct 3 2024
MVFR to IFR conditions along the coast will spread inland as an
area of rain moves north over the northern Gulf coast. By
morning, IFR/LIFR conditions are likely and expected through most
of the day. Conditions are expected to improve Friday night as the
rain eases. General easterly winds around 10 knots near the coast
and a light easterly well inland are expected through the
forecast.
/16
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 626 PM CDT Thu Oct 3 2024/
..New AVIATION...
AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Thu Oct 3 2024
General VFR conditions at this time are expected to drop to low
end MVFR/IFR overnight into Friday as an area of rain south of the
coast moves north over land portions of the forecast area. Am not
expecting the rain to move back south of the area until Friday
night. Northeast to easterly winds around 10 knots over coastal
counties, easing to a light easterly by Highway 84.
/16
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 327 PM CDT Thu Oct 3 2024/
.New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
NEAR TERM...
(Now through Friday Night)
Issued at 327 PM CDT Thu Oct 3 2024
Deep layer moisture is beginning to advect into coastal areas this
afternoon with current SPC mesoanalysis indicating PWAT values
between 1.2 inches well inland to around 2 inches at the coast. A
few showers are beginning to develop over the Florida Panhandle and
over the nearshore Gulf waters as a result. This plume of increased
moisture (PWAT values 2-2.5 inches) will continue to spread inland
through Friday morning as several weak shortwaves pivot around the
periphery of a mid and upper level ridge to our east. This moisture
combined with the lift aloft will bring a batch of scattered to
numerous showers and storms into the area by this evening with
coverage continuing into the morning hours on Friday. This activity
will be capable of producing heavy rainfall, but we are not
expecting flooding concerns at this time given the dry antecedent
conditions. Rain chances should gradually diminish through Friday
afternoon as the shortwave lifts out of the region and surface high
pressure noses in from the north. Low temperatures tonight will fall
into the upper 60s across interior southeast Mississippi and
southwest Alabama with lower 70s across the remainder of the area.
Temperatures on Friday will be cooler than the last few days given
the increased cloud cover and rain chances. Highs during the
afternoon should top out in the upper 70s and lower 80s. If you're
heading down to the beaches, the rip current risk will be increasing
to a moderate by late Friday afternoon. /14
SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 327 PM CDT Thu Oct 3 2024
A weak trough aloft will develop over the eastern states early
next week. This will send a cold front southward into the area
Monday into Monday night, likely clearing the area by Tuesday
morning. No precip is anticipated with this front, however it will
bring a cooler and drier airmass into the region. Northwest flow
aloft will continue through the end of the period with
precipitable water values dropping well below one inch. High
temperatures Tuesday through Thursday will top out in the low 80s
to upper 70s area-wide. Low temperatures will fall into the 50s
across much of the area (low 60s at the beaches) by mid-week. Rain
chances remain zero in the wake of the front. /13
MARINE...
Issued at 327 PM CDT Thu Oct 3 2024
A light easterly flow will begin to increase today with
moderate to at times strong easterly flow and building seas
continuing into the weekend. A Small Craft Advisory may become
necessary later in the forecast period for portions of the nearshore
Gulf waters. /14
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
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www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 3, 11:56 PM CDT ...New AVIATION...---------------
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