IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 4, 1:06 AM EDT094
FXUS63 KIND 040506
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
106 AM EDT Fri Oct 4 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Isolated fog possible tonight, especially south and east of
Indianapolis
- A few light showers cannot be ruled out Friday across northwest
portions of central Indiana And again Sunday across the NE and E
- Extended period of dry weather likely to last through next week
- Warmer than normal temperatures through Sunday then cooling for
early next week
&&
.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 916 PM EDT Thu Oct 3 2024
- Mostly Clear and Cool Overnight
- Lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
Strong high pressure was found along the east Coast of the CONUS.
Another large high was found over the northern plains. A weak
frontal boundary stretched between these two systems, from southern
Ontario to to SE WI and northern MO. Indiana remained largely under
the control of the high pressure system to the east as GOES16 showed
mainly clear skies across the state. Winds were plainly light and
variable across the area, and dew points were in the upper 40s and
low 50s.
Little overall change will be expected overnight. The wave and front
over the upper Midwest is expected to push east and southeast, but
should not reach Central Indiana prior to 12Z. Forecast soundings
through the night continue to suggest a very dry column with
subsidence. Water vapor also suggest subsidence arriving into the
area on SW flow in place aloft. Thus mostly clear skies will be
expected through the overnight hours. Models suggest dew point
depressions will remain large enough and with plentiful dry air
within the lower levels, widespread fog is not expected.
&&
.SHORT TERM (This evening through Friday)...
Issued at 303 PM EDT Thu Oct 3 2024
Expect quiet weather conditions through the short term period as
surface high pressure remains dominant. Current surface analysis
shows high pressure has shifted eastward towards the mid-atlantic
states with ridging extending back into central Indiana. This has
allowed for light southerly flow to return which has helped warm
temperatures some on top of the clear skies and drier air.
Efficient radiational cooling tonight will drop temperatures quickly
after sunset. Temperatures were slightly decreased from the NBM
which tends to underestimate cooling in these setups. Look for lows
in the upper 40s to low 50s. By late tonight, patchy fog could
develop over parts of the area due to light winds and clear skies.
Considerable PBL drying once again this afternoon should limit the
coverage of fog to mainly rural areas or those near river valleys
across southern portions of central Indiana.
Look for any fog that develops to quickly mix out after daybreak
Friday. A weak front will move in during the day Friday. Limited
moisture return and overall forcing should greatly limit rain
chances. In addition, forecast soundings show a lot of dry air in
the low levels further limiting the potential for precipitation. A
few showers cannot be ruled out across northwest portions of central
Indiana before the front becomes very diffuse. Expect a
north/northeasterly wind shift to accompany the front towards midday.
&&
.LONG TERM (Friday night through Thursday)...
Issued at 303 PM EDT Thu Oct 3 2024
The long term period will start out with SW winds and WAA ahead of
an approaching cold front bring above normal temperatures this
weekend. The front itself should move through late Sunday and may
bring some light rain but chances are low as models show much of the
moisture looks to be displaced away from the area.
A cooler and crisper airmass will settle in for next week behind the
cold front due to a surface high slowly moving through and NW flow
aloft. The high will bring several days of sunny skies with the
beautiful fall weather. Highs will be near 70 for next week with
lows in the 40s to near 50.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 106 AM EDT Fri Oct 4 2024
Impacts:
- Low confidence for patchy ground fog overnight.
Discussion:
VFR conditions are expected through the period. Light winds and
clear skies may lead to some patchy ground fog, but confidence in
this occurring at a TAF site remains low.
Otherwise, some mid clouds will arrive today from decaying mid level
precipitation. Wouldn't rule out some sprinkles near KLAF, but no
impacts are expected. Winds will become northeast during the day at
around 10kt or less.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Puma
SHORT TERM...Melo
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...50
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 4, 1:06 AM EDT---------------
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