ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 3, 1:23 AM EDT351
FXUS61 KILN 030523
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
123 AM EDT Thu Oct 3 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build across the region and allow for dry
weather through the end of the week. Precipitation chances and
breezy conditions will return to the region on Sunday as a cold front
moves through the area. In the wake of the cold front, cool and
dry conditions will be in place for early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Surface high pressure becomes centered over the Ohio Valley
tonight. This will result in clear skies and nearly calm winds
overnight. Given the combination of these factors, along with
the wet soils, some fog formation is expected, especially across
southern OH/northern KY. Have continued the SPS as the
potential for locally dense fog remains possible, especially
for those southern counties.
Overnight lows will dip into the 40s for most.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Surface high pressure to build east of the area Thursday. Any
fog that develops to improve by mid morning. In the dry airmass
expect only a few cumulus clouds and some thin high level
clouds. High temperatures to top out in the mid and upper 70s.
Weak southerly low level flow and mainly clear skies Thursday
night may lead to fog development. Temperatures will be a
little milder with lows from the upper 40s to the lower 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Dry weather can be expected during the first portion of the long
term thanks to high pressure covering much of the CONUS. Threat for
showers and thunderstorms arrives Sunday with a strong cold front
trailing Canadian low pressure. Model blend indicates breezy
conditions allowing enhancement and organization of some storms,
with strong storms possible. Dry weather returns Monday through
Wednesday as high pressure builds behind the front.
Airmass changes surrounding the front will dictate temperatures.
Above normal highs in the mid 70s to the low 80s will be observed
Friday through Sunday ahead of the front. Readings will fall close
to normal in cold advection behind the front, with highs ranging
from the mid 60s to low 70s Monday through Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mainly clear skies, alongside weak/calm winds and residual
near-ground moisture from recent rainfall, will allow for BR/FG
to develop/expand through daybreak, primarily for prone spots of
KILN/KLUK. River valley BR/FG should lead to IFR/LIFR conditions
at KLUK, with some VLIFR restrictions also possible at KLUK.
Conditions will return to VFR by 14z-15z area-wide, with FEW/SCT
cirrus expected from time-to-time through the day.
Calm winds overnight will shift toward out of the S during the
daytime, remaining around 5 kts during the day before subsiding
once again by/past 00z.
OUTLOOK....Fog may lead to LIFR or lower conditions into Friday
morning.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...Clark
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...Coniglio
AVIATION...KC
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 3, 1:23 AM EDT---------------
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