IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 2, 2:56 AM EDT346
FXUS63 KIND 020656
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
256 AM EDT Wed Oct 2 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Patchy fog possible tonight, especially south and east of
Indianapolis.
- Largely dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures
through the weekend
&&
.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Wed Oct 2 2024
Surface high pressure is moving into the region behind yesterday's
cold front. Dry continental polar air has replaced the muggy air
mass we've been stuck in for the past week. Temperatures are already
almost 15 degrees cooler than the previous night. With diminishing
winds and mainly clear skies, excellent radiational cooling
potnetial is anticipated. However, this may not persist entirely
through the night as high cirrus are advancing southeastward into
Indiana as of this writing. Nevertheless, lows well into the 40s are
expected by morning.
Any lingering cirrus should diminish shortly after sunrise, leaving
us with clear skies. Model soundings show a dry column which should
limit diurnal cumulus formation. As the core of high pressure
settles in, winds are likely to go light and variable for much of
the afternoon. With clear skies and very light winds...today's highs
near 70 should feel quite nice.
Tonight will feature ideal radiational cooling conditions yet again,
though winds may take on a very light southerly component. Lows in
the 40s are again expected. Boundary layer saturation by Thursday
morning may allow for some fog to develop, especially in the
southeastern half of our CWA. Fog should be mostly shallow and
confined to open areas and river valleys, but a few pockets of dense
fog cannot be ruled out.
&&
.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Wed Oct 2 2024
After the cooler and wetter pattern experienced over the last
several days initiated by the remnants of Helene...the pattern is
reverting back to a largely dry and seasonably warm regime that will
continue through the weekend.
An elongated and flattened upper ridge will hold largely to our
south through the end of the week prior to expanding into the region
for the first half of the weekend ahead of a sharp upper trough
traversing the U S-Canada border. At the surface...the Ohio Valley
will remain under high pressure with two brief exceptions as cold
fronts pass through Friday and again on Sunday afternoon.
With the Gulf of Mexico cutoff courtesy of easterly flow...neither
boundary will have much moisture to work with. The Friday front is
the weaker of the two with a subtle increase in mid and high clouds
and a wind shift signaling the passage of the boundary. The Sunday
front is stronger and has better upper level support from the trough
referenced above moving along the Canadian border. The primary
mitigating issue for precipitation besides the lack of low level
moisture is that the upper level forcing will be displaced well to
the north of the region. While the strength of the front alone could
generate a few showers with passage Sunday afternoon...cannot
justify higher than slight chance pops at this time considering the
limiting factors.
Highs will be seasonable to start on Thursday in the mid 70s...then
rise into the upper 70s and lower 80s by the weekend in advance of
the Sunday front. Strong cold advection in wake of the late weekend
boundary and a renewed surge of drier air will set the stage for
cooler days early next week in the upper 60s and lows that will
likely fall as low as the lower 40s.
In the 7-10 day range...signals support the expansion of a broader
upper level ridge from the western part of the country which would
support highs returning into the mid to perhaps upper 70s late next
week. The dry pattern will continue as well with no threat for rain
anticipated at all next week.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 138 AM EDT Wed Oct 2 2024
Impacts:
- None.
Discussion:
VFR conditions are expected.
Winds are beginning to diminish and should stay under 10kt at all
terminals through the forecast period. Direction may go light and
variable as surface high pressure settles in. A light southerly flow
may develop after sunset.
High cirrus should persist through the night, but diminish quickly
around sunrise. A dry lower atmosphere should limit diurnal cumulus
growth this afternoon.
There is a low probability of shallow overnight fog, especially LAF,
HUF, and BMG. Better chance for fog is Wednesday night compared
to this morning.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Eckhoff
LONG TERM...Ryan
AVIATION...Eckhoff
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 2, 2:56 AM EDT---------------
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