BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 29, 2:22 PM EDT049
FXUS61 KBOX 291822
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
222 PM EDT Sun Sep 29 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure continues to provide dry conditions to the region
into early next week. Low chance for a shower mid-week,
followed by continued dry conditions as high pressure will bring
a return to dry and seasonable weather later in the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Updated: 2:20 PM
There are only a few areas where the sun was able to breakout early
this afternoon, mainly northeast Massachusetts. Satellite trends
favor more breaks in the clouds this afternoon, allowing for a few
peeks of sunshine before the day is over with. Clouds have kept the
region noticeably cooler than yesterday, with many locations in the
middle and upper 60s.
Overnight into early tomorrow morning clouds filter back in to areas
that were able to break into partial sunshine. Think there will
still be partially clear skies for northern areas that border
southern New Hampshire and Vermont, leading to cooler temperatures
in the upper 40s and 50F. Elsewhere more in the way of clouds and
temperatures in the lower and middle 50s. Dewpoints fall overnight
to the low 50s, could see areas of ground fog develop across the
interior late tonight/predawn Monday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Updated: 2:20 PM
Any morning fog and/or stratus will take some time to disperse given
the low sun angle in late September. Still, plenty of mid and high
clouds remain well into the afternoon. With high pressure to our
north the region remains under east to northeast flow, albeit light
winds less than 10 MPH, this will keep afternoon temperatures
seasonably cool and trended the temperatures lower than the NBM
guidance given the outcome of Sunday's afternoon high temperatures.
Expect high temperatures between 67F and 73F.
Similar conditions Monday night into Tuesday with the return of low
stratus and patchy fog, temperatures are once again in the low and
middle 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Highlights...
* Mostly dry & pleasant weather continues through next week.
* First chance of rain showers comes Tue night thru Wed night but
coverage is sporadic and a washout isn't expected.
* Slight chance of rain returns around next weekend but confidence
is low.
Details...
The forecast for Tue-Sat is largely dry, with scattered rain showers
possible Tue night-Wed night bookended by dry weather. Helene's
remnants will slowly move east off the Mid-Atlantic coast on Tuesday
into Wednesday but high pressure extending from Nova Scotia will
push the system far south enough to keep showers associated with it
offshore. However, with low level flow around the high and saturated
low levels, it will be cloudy and some drizzle is possible. The more
robust rain chances accompany a cold front and mid level trough that
swings through mid week. However, the best forcing is removed to the
north and west so coverage of showers should be more hit and miss
with the best chance over northwest MA.
Starting Thursday drier zonal flow arrives with surface high
pressure. The next feature to focus on will be a subtle shortwave
that rotates through the mid level flow which may bring rain
chances on Saturday before high pressure returns. However,
confidence is low; EPS ensemble probabilities indicate a 50-60%
chance of rain on Saturday while the GEFS is less enthused with only
a 30-40% chance. Stay tuned.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
18z TAFs:
Through 00z...High confidence.
Mainly dry. MVFR trending to VFR late afternoon. Winds are east
to northeast 5 to 10 knots.
Tonight...Moderate confidence.
VFR trending MVFR after 08z, have held off on lower CIGs at
this time, but low chance of this occurring mainly in elevated
terminals like KORH. Ground fog possible across the interior.
Winds are light and variable to calm.
Tomorrow...Moderate confidence.
MVFR to start, trending VFR after 15z. East to northeast winds
5 to 10 knots.
Tomorrow Night...Moderate confidence.
MVFR. Winds northeast less than 5 knots.
BOS TAF...Moderate Confidence in TAF.
MVFR ceilings linger through 19z with improvement to VFR
shortly afterwards. Lower ceilings return overnight, trending
MVFR around 08z through 15z Monday. VFR CIGs after 15z through
Monday afternoon. East to northeast winds less than 10 knots
rest of today and tomorrow, will have near calm winds overnight.
BDL TAF...Moderate Confidence in TAF.
MVFR ceilings linger through 19z with improvement to VFR
shortly afterwards. Lower ceilings return overnight, trending
MVFR around 08z through 12z Monday. May have patchy ground fog
predawn. VFR CIGs after 12z through Monday afternoon. East to
northeast winds less than 10 knots rest of today and tomorrow,
will have near calm winds overnight.
Outlook /Tuesday through Thursday/...
Monday Night through Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR
possible.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible.
Wednesday Night through Thursday: VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through Monday Night...High confidence.
Low chance of an isolated shower for the southern outer waters
rest of today and tonight, otherwise dry conditions prevail
through Monday night. Seas and winds remain below S.C.A.
criteria, seas are 2 to 3 foot and winds are east Sunday
afternoon around 10 knots, then becoming light and variable
overnight. Monday winds area northeast 8 to 12 knots.
Outlook /Tuesday through Thursday/...
Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.
Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Tuesday Night through Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up
to 5 ft.
Wednesday Night through Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas
of seas approaching 5 ft.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BW/Dooley
NEAR TERM...Dooley
SHORT TERM...Dooley
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...BW/Dooley
MARINE...BW/Dooley
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 29, 2:22 PM EDT----------------
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