BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 27, 9:32 PM EDT102
FXUS61 KBOX 280132
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
932 PM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in tonight keeping southern New England dry
through the start of next week. The next chance of rain arrives
around the middle of next week as a cold front moves through
the region. High pressure will bring a return to dry and
seasonable weather later in the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
10 PM Update:
Forecast remains on track. The New York City radar shows a band
of showers trying to lift NE toward southern New England this
evening but it is running up into surface ridging and plenty of
dry air at low and mid levels.
Some of high-res guidance, in particular HRRR, tries to bring
some of that activity into CT and possibly southwest MA after
sunrise, but odds that anything survives the trip this far north
is questionable. It's certainly possible that we end up with
some sprinkles Sat morning but not planning to add mention of
that just yet. Clouds will certainly dominate but we should also
see breaks of sunshine. Light onshore flow will keep
temperatures a little cooler than today.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure dominates the weekend with high clouds sticking
around. Onshore flow returns as part of the high's circulation,
keeping highs in the upper 60s along the coasts and the lower 70s
further inland. Guidance favored continued moisture at 850 mb
through 750 mb, favoring the development of lower clouds. High
clouds are also expected to remain through the weekend, restricting
strong radiational cooling. Lows Saturday night should sit in the
50s across the region.
Sunday is more of the same. Temperatures aloft cool only by a few
degrees and moisture remains, favoring continued cloudy skies
through the morning hours. Overall, a seasonable weekend lies
ahead.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Points:
* Dry and seasonable through much of next week
* Showers possible in Tue/Wed timeframe
Upper level pattern remains on the blocky side into early next week
as a ridge remains anchored over Ontario and Quebec and a trough
associated with the remnants of Helene is trapped to the south.
Eventually, a digging trough over the northern Rockies helps sharpen
the ridge and shifts it northward, which allows the southern trough
to lift out somewhere near Mid Atlantic coast around and dampen with
time around midweek.
What this all means for us is a continued stretch of dry and
seasonably warm weather into early next week, although onshore flow
will keep temperatures a little cooler near coast. We should see at
least scattered showers in the Tue/Wed timeframe, either from
Helene's remnants as they work their way somewhere off East Coast,
or from the approaching cold front associated with upper trough.
Beyond that, another stretch of dry weather returns along with
seasonable temperatures. Incoming airmass is not unusually cold for
early October.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
00z TAFs: High confidence.
Weak coastal sea breezes will dissipate this evening with light
or calm winds becoming NE before daybreak. Still seeing some
potential in guidance for MVFR or even IFR ceilings moving
onshore across eastern MA, including KBOS and Cape Cod/Islands
overnight, but now seeing anything on satellite right now in
Gulf of Maine or offshore that would support that. Left mention
out for now but if it does occur it would be in the 05z-11z
timeframe.
Otherwise VFR through TAF period with light E/NEW flow and 040-060
ceilings Sat and Sat night.
BOS TAF...High confidence in TAF. Low potential for a period of
MVFR or even IFR ceilings 05z-11z Sat but not enough confidence
to include.
BDL TAF...High Confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...
Sunday Night through Monday Night: VFR.
Tuesday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Breezy. Chance
SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through Saturday night...High confidence.
Light winds tonight turn E/NE overnight through Sat night but
remain light, generally 10kt or less. Seas gradually build on
southern waters ahead of remnants of Helene, and may reach 5 ft
on ocean waters later Sat night.
Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...
Sunday Night through Monday: Winds less than 25 kt.
Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft.
Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance
of rain showers.
Tuesday Night through Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up
to 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hrencecin/JWD
NEAR TERM...Hrencecin/KP
SHORT TERM...Hrencecin
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...Mensch/JWD
MARINE...Hrencecin/JWD
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 27, 9:32 PM EDT----------------
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