NHC issues Tropical Cyclone Discussion (TCD) at Sep 28, 9:00 PM GMT394
WTNT45 KNHC 282042
TCDAT5
Hurricane Isaac Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102024
900 PM GMT Sat Sep 28 2024
The expected weakening of Isaac appears to have started. The eye of
the hurricane has been filling some during the past few hours, and
the convective pattern is losing symmetry with dry air entraining
into the southwestern side of the circulation. The Dvorak
classifications are dropping, and accordingly, the initial intensity
is nudged downward to 85 kt. The hurricane is already over cool 24
C waters and it is headed for progressively cooler waters during the
next several days. These unfavorable oceanic conditions coupled
with a sharp increase in vertical wind shear should cause steady
weakening, and a transition into a post-tropical cyclone in about
36 hours.
Isaac is moving relatively quickly northeastward at 16 kt. The
system is forecast to move a little slower to the east-northeast or
northeast during the next couple of days within the mid-latitude
flow. After that, a turn to the north is expected on the eastern
side of an extratropical low. No significant changes were made to
the previous track forecast, and this one lies fairly close to the
various consensus aids.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 28/2100Z 41.3N 38.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 42.5N 37.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 43.7N 35.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 30/0600Z 44.8N 32.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 30/1800Z 46.1N 30.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 01/0600Z 48.3N 28.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 01/1800Z 50.4N 27.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 02/1800Z 54.0N 26.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 03/1800Z 56.9N 23.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
Source:
NHC issues Tropical Cyclone Discussion (TCD) at Sep 28, 9:00 PM GMT---------------
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