MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 29, 12:43 PM CDT ...New AVIATION...867
FXUS64 KMOB 291743
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1243 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024
...New AVIATION...
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024
VFR conditions are forecast to prevail. Westerly to southwesterly
winds 7-12 knots with a few higher gusts near the coast will
become light and variable this evening. Very patchy fog may be
possible over inland areas by early Monday morning. /22
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 437 AM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024/
.New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
NEAR TERM...
(Now through Monday)
Issued at 437 AM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024
A deep area of low pressure continues to spin over the vicinity of
Kentucky early this morning and the associated trough axis extends
southward into the northern Gulf Coast region. The surface low
will gradually weaken today, while the mid level low pressure
system very slowly lifts to the east/northeast toward the vicinity
of the Ohio Valley/West Virginia by Monday afternoon. The base of
the associated trough axis will hold in place across our forecast
area today and tonight, before the overall mid level trough axis
becomes more elongated from Ohio/West Virginia into central
Mississippi and northern Louisiana by Monday. Precipitable water
values continue to average between 1.2-1.5 inches across the
region through Monday, but the overall lack of forcing/ascent will
preclude POPs worth mentioning. A dry forecast continues through
Monday afternoon. Highs today and Monday will remain quite warm in
the mid 80s to around 90 degrees. Lows tonight should continue to
range in the lower to mid 60s over interior areas and in the
upper 60s to mid 70s along the immediate coast and beaches.
Surf should continue to subside along area beaches this morning.
Westerly to southwesterly winds will still remain elevated between
10-15 mph with a few gusts over 20 mph along area beaches today
and probabilistic rip current guidance favors keeping the risk
MODERATE over the Alabama beaches through this afternoon and
through at least this evening along the western Florida panhandle.
The rip current risk should become LOW during the early to middle
part of next week. /21
SHORT TERM and LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 437 AM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024
Upper troughing across the region continues through Wednesday as
the cutoff upper low early in the period across the Mid-Atlantic
states gradually shears out and unwinds, moving into the Atlantic.
In its wake, weak upper ridging attempts to build into the
forecast area for Thursday into Friday. After this, a southern
stream shortwave looks to move across the south- central U.S.,
gradually approaching the forecast area. Uncertainty in the
forward speed and amplitude of this feature persists, and will
have an impact on the sensible forecast as we head into Friday and
Saturday.
At the surface, we will continue to have generally drier air
advected into the forecast area from the northwest thanks to the
upper low Monday night through Wednesday. As this feature moves
away from the region, expect a return of a tropical airmass to the
forecast area by late week. With that said, overall dry weather
will prevail through mid week. Highs will generally be in the
middle to upper 80's, perhaps locally touching 90 through mid
week. Lows will remain in the lower to middle 60's inland and
upper 60's to near 70 along the coast through mid week.
We continue to monitor the potential for another area of low
pressure that may develop in the western Caribbean or southern
Gulf of Mexico late week. The evolution of this feature will be
the primary influence for the forecast late week into the weekend
helping to advect a tropical airmass back into the forecast area.
Regardless of this systems development, a plume of 2 to 2.5 inch
PWATs push into the forecast area Thursday through Saturday which
could help bolster some heavy rainfall potential with any showers
or storms. Rain chances increase during this period with an
expectation for isolated to scattered coverage of showers and
storms Friday and Saturday. Temperatures will be knocked down a
bit by increased cloud cover and rain chances, with highs going
from middle and upper 80's Thursday to lower to middle 80's for
Friday and Saturday. Lows stay steady state with lower to middle
60's inland and upper 60's to near 70 along the coast. A low risk
of rip currents remains through Thursday, with potential for the
rip current threat to increase Friday into Saturday depending on
the evolution of the system in the southern Gulf of Mexico. MM/25
MARINE...
Issued at 437 AM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024
A light to moderate westerly to southwesterly flow will prevail
today with a gradual subside in seas. A light diurnal flow pattern
returns tonight through Tuesday as high pressure builds over the
marine area. Winds will shift easterly by the middle of the week
and should gradually increase into Thursday along with a slight
build in seas. /21
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 67 89 68 90 69 90 68 88 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 20
Pensacola 71 88 71 89 71 88 71 86 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 30
Destin 74 87 73 88 72 87 72 86 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 30
Evergreen 64 89 64 89 64 90 64 88 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10
Waynesboro 64 87 63 87 64 87 63 88 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10
Camden 64 86 63 86 64 87 63 87 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10
Crestview 66 90 66 90 66 90 66 88 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 30
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 29, 12:43 PM CDT ...New AVIATION...---------------
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