IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 28, 1:06 PM EDT248
FXUS63 KIND 281706
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
106 PM EDT Sat Sep 28 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Widespread rain/showers linger through much of the weekend
- Cool and damp today and Sunday
- Mainly dry conditions with seasonable temperatures to open up
October
&&
.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 948 AM EDT Sat Sep 28 2024
Forecast is in decent shape this morning. Rain continues across much
of the southern half of central Indiana as low pressure meanders
across western Kentucky.
Rain will continue south this morning and gradually work its way
northwest through the afternoon as forcing moves north. It will take
a while to get to the far northwest forecast area as it encounters a
drier atmosphere there.
Adjusted hourly PoPs to reflect current trends on radar, but the
overall forecast remains the same as previous. Also tweaked hourly
forecasts of sky, wind, and temperatures based on latest
observations.
High temperatures look good for now, but will wait and see how sky
cover/rain evolves across the northwest. May have to adjust down if
clouds remain thicker there longer.
&&
.SHORT TERM (Today and Tonight)...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Sat Sep 28 2024
Enjoying a brief lull across much of the forecast area early this
morning after the heavy rain and damaging winds Friday evening.
Showers have become isolated to scattered as slightly drier air has
advected in behind the swath of rain now over Illinois. Temperatures
have moved little in the mid and upper 60s since Friday with clouds
and a deeply saturated airmass.
The remnant low that was once Helene continues to fill as it drifts
through western Kentucky. The low will further weaken today and
tonight as it wobbles over the lower Ohio Valley then drifts back
east by daybreak Sunday. The presence of the surface wave over the
region in tandem with the broad upper low will keep clouds over the
forecast area through tonight with additional chances for rain.
As mentioned above...quiet conditions currently exist over much of
central Indiana early this morning as the deeper plume of moisture
rotating around the remnant low is now well off to the W/SW. A broad
rain shield however has been steadily pivoting north through central
Kentucky and will expand back across the forecast area from the
south over the next several hours through the morning. The southeast
half of central Indiana will be the primary focus for rain through
midday and will ramp back up to cat pops as a result. Once again
similar to what occurred on Friday...rain is likely to have a hard
time making it all the way northwest through the forecast area as
drier air over the Great Lakes will inhibit deeper moisture
advection further north.
The drier air to the north will be gradually eroded by this evening
as the remnant low moves slowly back to the east and this should
enable deeper moisture to finally work into north central Indiana
and enable rain to expand further north. Showers will continue
throughout the night but should slowly decrease in coverage as the
overall system continues to weaken. Northeast winds will continue to
gust at times today...generally up to 25mph. Expect gusts to drop
off by this evening with winds at or below 10mph tonight.
Rainfall rates will be much lower that what we experienced Friday
afternoon. Amounts by Sunday morning will generally range from 0.25
to 0.50 inches over much of the forecast area although there is
likely to be an axis of higher amounts over our southern counties
where rain will fall the longest...perhaps pushing up to an
additional inch in some spots.
Temps...the diurnal range will continue to be minimized by the thick
clouds and rain over the region. Highs today will range form the
upper 60s south to the mid 70s north with lows tonight in the lower
to mid 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Sat Sep 28 2024
The remnants of Hurricane Helene merged with a mid to upper-level low
over the Ohio River Valley earlier today. The resulting system
should slowly spin down while meandering nearby for the next several
days. By Tuesday, an advancing trough and associated cold front is
expected to sweep what remains of Helene out of the region.
Taking a broader look at the overall synoptic pattern, we see a
rather progressive jet stream over Canada. Helene's remnants are
currently cut off from this flow, which is why the system is not
expected to move all that much in the coming days. Lingering low-
level moisture may promote nightly fog chances through Tuesday
morning. This will depend on cloud cover and surface winds, however.
By the time the cold front arrives on Tuesday, Helene's remnants are
likely to be an ill-defined low-level swirl...at best. Guidance
indicates that deep moisture brought north by Helene will hang
around into the coming week, but should gradually shift north and
east with time. So, despite the advancing frontal boundary, it is
not currently anticipated to bring anything more than a few showers.
Behind the front, high temperatures may drop by about 10 degrees
from the day before...with highs struggling to reach 70 in places.
Given the progressive synoptic pattern, a quick rebound is expected
with highs returning to the 70s by the end of the week.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 102 PM EDT Sat Sep 28 2024
Impacts:
- Ceilings deteriorating this morning with IFR conditions by this
Evening, potential for LIFR tonight
- Periodic showers today through tonight
- Wind gusts to around 20kts through the afternoon then diminishing
Discussion:
Rain is lifting back to the northwest through central Indiana early
this morning as the remnant low that was Helene wobbles over western
Kentucky. The low will remain nearly stationary for much of the day
before drifting slowly east tonight. Rain will continue to push
northwest and gradually encompass all of the terminals by this
evening continuing overnight.
Northeast winds will remain gusty for much of the day, peaking at
25kts. Gusts will diminish this evening as the low weakens
further. IFR are expected from this evening through Sunday
morning, with pockets of LIFR possible
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...50
SHORT TERM...Ryan
LONG TERM...Eckhoff
AVIATION...Updike
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 28, 1:06 PM EDT---------------
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