PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 28, 8:03 AM EDT167
FXUS61 KPBZ 281203
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
803 AM EDT Sat Sep 28 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A large upper level low will drift eastward this weekend
reaching the Mid-Atlantic region by Monday. This will keep our
weather unsettled, but temperatures remain mild.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
-Scattered showers possible through out the day.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Main update early this morning was to PoPs with latest hi res
guidance and radar trends. The dry slot that pushed overhead
overnight is now making its exit allowing low and mid level
moisture to stream in from the southwest on the flank of the
remnants of Helene centered over Kentucky. A few breaks in the
cloud cover are possible through this morning, especially south
and east of Pittsburgh, but those breaks will fill in quickly
later this morning as moisture again increases. Some
redevelopment of scattered showers is possible this afternoon
with highest probability west of I-79 coincident with the
better deep layer moisture. With overall weak forcing and
limited instability, not expecting any prolific rainfall
production today with ensemble probability for >0.10" not
surpassing 30%.
Temperatures will again be above normal today despite the cloud
coverage.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Clouds and the threat for light rain continues through Monday.
- Temperatures remain seasonable.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
The upper low will continue to have influence on our region
into early next week. Rainfall chances will increase Sunday as
the center of the low moves over eastern KY. Rainfall amounts
Sunday should be light, with probs of >0.25 sitting around 50%
to 60%. The higher end of these probabilities will be over
portions of northern WV and the ridge counties. Latest models
very slowly absorb the low into the broader pattern with a
gradual shift in the axis of precipitation to the east going
into next week. This keeps rainfall chances in the forecast
through much of Monday with a focus along the terrain and east;
again dependent on the speed and track of the low pressure
system.
With southerly flow, temperatures will trend above average
Sunday with a moderation closer to normal on Monday.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Ensembles favor a trough kicker to arrive Tuesday into
Wednesday, with dry and seasonable weather developing
thereafter
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Ensembles favor the weakening area of low pressure to shift
toward the Atlantic coast Tuesday into Wednesday morning thanks
to a kicker upper trough diving out of central Canada. This
feature would likely offer a last chance for precipitation ahead
of a surface cold front before a drier and more seasonable
airmass develops.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Ceiling improvement is expected through 14Z as the dry slot
continues to rotate across the region. Showers north of PIT will
continue to bring IFR ceiling restrictions to FKL/DUJ through
then. VFR is largely expected areawide by midday, with a
southeast wind around or less than 10 knots.
Scattered showers will redevelop and move back into the area
during the day tomorrow with daytime heating in place and as
moisture increases once again. Flight conditions should remain
mostly VFR through the day, before deterioration overnight back
into the MVFR/IFR range with nocturnal cooling.
.Outlook...
Occasional restrictions are possible into early next week
as upper level low pressure drifts across the Upper Ohio Valley.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...22
NEAR TERM...22/MLB
SHORT TERM...22/34
LONG TERM...34
AVIATION...CL/Shallenberger
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 28, 8:03 AM EDT---------------
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