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438 FXUS64 KMOB 272001AFDMOBArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service Mobile AL301 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE....NEAR TERM...(Now through Saturday)Issued at 259 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024The area will continue to dry out as impacts subside in the wake of Helene (now a tropical depression). The massive cloud shield from Helene continues to slide toward our northernmost counties, but overall, most of the area continues to see sunny skies this afternoon. Conditions remain breezy with occasional gusts to 30mph, predominantly along the coast and out over the Gulf waters. The only hazards that remain in the aftermath of Helene are a High Surf Advisory, HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS, and Small Craft Advisory.Enjoy the fall-esque weather today as dry air continues to slide into our area as it wraps around the southern periphery of Helene. Dewpoints continue to crater into the 50s this afternoon making it feel downright pleasant outside. Winds take on more of a southwesterly component by Saturday as Helene meanders across Kentucky, allowing for some moisture to stream back into the area. Rain chances remain near zero through Saturday night. Temperatures on Saturday rebound back into the mid to upper 80s with lows tonight and Saturday night falling into the 60s inland with 70s along the immediate coastline.Beach Note: The risk of rip currents remains HIGH for the Florida panhandle beaches on Saturday with a MODERATE risk across coastal Alabama beaches. Rip current probabilities across our Alabama beaches are very close to necessitating a HIGH risk on Saturday, so we will be watching beach conditions closely. 07/mb&&.SHORT THROUGH EXTENDED TERM...(Sunday through Friday)Issued at 259 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024The combined remnants of Helene and an upper low that are meandering over the Tennessee/Ohio River Valleys over the weekend into the early part of the coming week weaken and move off as a shortwave trough moves over the US/Ca border through Monday, leaving a mean upper trough over the eastern Conus. As this trough moves off the East Coast, an upper level ridge builds over the Southeast/eastern Gulf of Mexico into Friday. General northerly low level flow on the east side of surface high pressure moving over the central Plains into mid week keeps the forecast area under dry, but not appreciable cooler, flow into mid week. As the surface ridge moves to along the east coast and stalls, a more east to southeasterly flow develops over the northern Gulf the end of the coming week. Precipitable h20 levels increase from around 1.25"-1.35 Sunday into Tuesday forecast area wide, as a band of 1.5" to 2" air works its way north over the northern Gulf to the southern quarter of land portions of the forecast area. Guidance is advertising a shortwave trough moving along the southern/western periphery of the upper high and a slight chance of rain is possible Friday south of Highway 84.The dry airmass and mostly sunny days, along with increasing upper subsidence in the coming week, will bring high temperatures rising to well above seasonal norms through the coming week. High temperatures in the mid 80s to around 90 are expected Sunday into Wednesday. The shift in low level flow the end of the week will bring a bit cooler air over the forecast area and high temperatures see a bit of a downward trend, into the low to mid 80s over most of the forecast area, with some upper 80s over the Florida Panhandle and inland southeast Mississippi. Clear skies and a dry airmass will help overnight cooling, though am still expecting above seasonal temperatures. Low temperatures in the mid 60s along and north of Highway 84, upper 60s to around 70 south are expected Sunday night into Tuesday night. Wednesday and Thursday, the NBM is advertising a more significant drop in low temperatures. Am not seeing anything in the latest guidance to justify, so bumped the NBM guidance up. Wednesday and Thursday nights, low temperatures in the low to mid 60s are expected along and north of Highway 84, mid to upper 60s south. /16&&.MARINE...Issued at 259 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024Winds and seas continue to relax in the wake of Helene. Small craft conditions persist through 00z tonight with exercise caution levels continuing through Saturday afternoon for the Gulf waters and bays. No impacts expected beyond Saturday night other than locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms late in the week. 07/mb&&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...Mobile 66 87 65 89 68 89 68 90 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 71 87 71 88 73 87 71 88 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 Destin 74 85 75 86 75 86 74 87 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 10 Evergreen 63 88 63 89 65 89 65 90 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 63 87 61 86 63 88 64 88 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Camden 63 85 61 85 64 87 64 86 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Crestview 64 87 66 89 67 89 66 89 / 0 0 0 10 0 10 0 10 &&.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...AL...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday morning for ALZ265-266. High Surf Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ265-266.FL...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for FLZ202-204- 206. High Surf Advisory until 11 PM CDT this evening for FLZ202-204- 206.MS...None.GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ630>636- 650-655-670-675.&&$$This product is also available on the web at:www.weather.gov/mob
