NHC issues Tropical Cyclone Discussion (TCD) at Sep 16, 1:00 AM AST398
WTNT42 KNHC 152031
TCDAT2
Tropical Depression Gordon Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024
500 PM AST Sun Sep 15 2024
Gordon's center remains well displaced to the west of the area of
deep convection. There recently was a convective burst near the
center, and it remains to be seen if this is an intermittent pulse
of convection or if the system will try to maintain convection.
Subjective and objective Dvorak estimates have decreased between 25
to 35 kt. Using an average of these estimates, the intensity for
this advisory is set to 30 kt, and Gordon has weakened into a
tropical depression.
The cyclone continues to move west-southwestward, with a current
motion estimate of 260/7 kt. Gordon is being steered by a mid-level
ridge to to the north. The steering flow is expected to weaken as
the ridge to the north becomes less pronounced, which should result
in Gordon slowing down considerably. By late in the forecast period,
a trough develops to the west-northwest of Gordon. This is expected
to cause the tropical cyclone to turn toward the north-northeast.
The official track forecast is similar to the previous one, nudged
slightly to the right and a little faster towards the end of the
period near the HFIP corrected consensus.
Gordon continues to experience strong westerly vertical wind shear
and is within fairly stable airmass. It still remains possible that
the the system could degenerate into a remnant low, as it struggles
to produce convection. The environmental conditions improve towards
the end of the forecast period that depicts that the system could
re-strengthen. The current intensity forecast is similar to the
previous forecast but does show Gordon becoming a tropical storm
again towards the end of the period, if it can survive the next few
days.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/2100Z 19.2N 46.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 19.1N 47.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 19.0N 48.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 17/0600Z 19.0N 49.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 17/1800Z 19.2N 49.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 18/0600Z 19.5N 49.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 18/1800Z 20.0N 50.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 19/1800Z 22.2N 49.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 20/1800Z 24.9N 47.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
$$
Forecaster Kelly
Source:
NHC issues Tropical Cyclone Discussion (TCD) at Sep 16, 1:00 AM AST---------------
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