NHC issues Tropical Cyclone Discussion (TCD) at Sep 14, 1:00 PM AST885
WTNT42 KNHC 140843
TCDAT2
Tropical Storm Gordon Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024
500 AM AST Sat Sep 14 2024
The center of Gordon appears to be racing out ahead of the deep
convective mass to its east in recent proxy-visible satellite
images. This appearance is consistent with moderate deep-layer
westerly shear over the cyclone as indicated by model soundings.
Earlier scatterometer data showed the extent of tropical-storm-force
winds was about 100 n mi in the northern semicircle of the storm.
The circulation on the southwest side of the storm was not as well
defined, with relatively weak winds and signs of elongation. A blend
of the latest subjective TAFB/SAB Dvorak estimates and objective
estimates from UW-CIMSS support an initial intensity of 40 kt, which
is also consistent with the scatterometer winds.
The sheared storm is moving into a drier and more stable air mass,
which is likely to induce some weakening during the next couple of
days. In fact, some models continue to show the possibility of
Gordon losing organized convection and degenerating to a remnant
low. The official NHC forecast brings Gordon to a depression in 24 h
but maintains it as a tropical cyclone for now. Environmental
conditions should become less hostile by the middle of next week,
and the NHC forecast indicates some re-strengthening could occur
during that time. This part of the forecast remains conservative,
as there are still several dynamical models that show little, if
any, re-intensification later next week.
Gordon appears to be moving west-northwestward (285/8 kt), but a
gradual turn toward the west and west-southwest is forecast over
the next couple of days, in good agreement with the latest track
guidance. Track forecast confidence decreases at days 3-5, where
the motion appears more sensitive to whether or not Gordon
restrengthens. A weakness in the mid-level subtropical ridge is
forecast to develop, which would allow the system to gain some
latitude if its vertical depth matches that steering level.
However, a shallower system could continue moving slowly westward
within the low-level flow. The updated NHC forecast shows a more
gradual turn toward the northwest and north at days 3-5, in best
agreement with the TVCA simple consensus aid.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/0900Z 20.1N 40.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 20.0N 42.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 19.9N 44.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 19.7N 45.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 16/0600Z 19.5N 46.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 16/1800Z 19.3N 48.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 17/0600Z 19.2N 49.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 18/0600Z 19.5N 51.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 19/0600Z 21.0N 51.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
Source:
NHC issues Tropical Cyclone Discussion (TCD) at Sep 14, 1:00 PM AST---------------
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