JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 15, 2:00 PM EDT804
FXUS63 KJKL 151800 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
200 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- After high temperatures well into the 80s in most places this
weekend, a slight cool-down arrives for the upcoming weekdays.
- Dry weather lasts through Monday, followed by a small potential
for showers at times Monday night through Friday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 145 PM EDT SUN SEP 15 2024
No significant changes to the forecast with just the inclusion of
the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor
adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers.
UPDATE Issued at 1115 AM EDT SUN SEP 15 2024
14Z sfc analysis shows dry high pressure off to the northeast of
Kentucky with slowly weakening low pressure to the southwest. This
will continue the downsloping flow of air generally from the east
at 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts to 15 mph. Currently,
temperatures are rebounding from morning lows to the mid and upper
70s. Meanwhile, under sunny skies, dewpoints vary from the mid 50s
northeast to the lower 60s in the southwest. The traces of valley
fog have all cleared out now, as well. Have updated the forecast
grids and text products to remove the fog mention and also to fine
tune the sky/T/Td grids per the latest obs and trends. These
minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along
with a freshening of the zones and SAFs.
UPDATE Issued at 757 AM EDT SUN SEP 15 2024
Updated the grids to maintain fluidity in hourly diurnal
temperature grids.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 433 AM EDT SUN SEP 15 2024
A Rex-block pattern aloft - high heights north of a low center -
continues to usher in slightly above average temperatures today
with mostly sunny skies, light winds, and drier air. A fairly
strong 590dm 5h high over the northeast will dry things out even
more heading into Monday, while keeping moisture over the
southeastern CONUS from progressing away from the area. Eastern
Kentucky remains far enough north to escape the active rain to the
south. Highs today will generally be in the mid to upper 80s.
Tonight, with drier air advecting in across eastern Kentucky, and
clear skies, areas may radiate out more than model guidance, with
ridge valley splits likely falling outside the 5th percentile of
the NBM. Lows will likely be in the lower 50s in the valleys, and
upper 50s to lower 60s across ridges.
Currently, an offshore low off the southeastern US coast, has been
given a 50% chance of forming into a cyclone in the next 48 hours,
as forecasted by the National Hurricane Center. This low pressure
according to model and ensemble guidance is expected to move
onshore over the Carolinas Sunday night, and continue westward
towards Eastern Kentucky during the day Monday. The area will see
increasing cloud cover from east to west throughout the day. This
will also keep high temperatures closer to average for this time
of year in the upper 70s to lower 80s across the area.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 335 AM EDT SUN SEP 15 2024
The period begins Monday evening with an upper level low and
potential tropical or subtropical cyclone moving inland across the
Carolinas, with models varying on the location and strength of the
parent upper low as well as the surface feature for subsequent
periods through the mid to late week period. For instance, at 12z
Wednesday, the 00z GFS operational model depicts the parent upper
low over southern Indiana, while the 00z ECMWF depicts the upper
low over western North Carolina, while the 00z NAM has the parent
low over eastern Kentucky. This makes for a somewhat difficult
temperature and precipitation forecast, especially Tuesday, with
less uncertainty with time through the remainder of the week.
However, models attempt to build ridging over the Midwest toward
the weekend, though there are significant discrepancies between
the operational models in how this is achieved. Monday, ensemble
and model guidance shows a coastal area of low pressure For
Tuesday, we decided not to be as aggressive as the NBM with its
deterministic forecast highs in the lower 70s, opting instead for
mid to upper 70s given uncertainties with the track and strength
of the aforementioned low pressure system. For the rest of the
week, the generally decreasing cloud coverage and PoPs will allow
for MaxTs to climb back into the 80s for the second half of the
week into the weekend, while MinTs are expected in the upper
50s/lower 60s. The potential for ridge-valley splits and
radiational fog will be mitigated by clouds and precipitation
chances mid-week, but both may still materialize in southwestern
portions of the area. Places such as London, Monticello, and
Somerset will be the furthest removed from the moisture and
forcing associated with the tropical system and will thus see less
cloud coverage and lower rain chances throughout the long term
forecast. On the other hand, eastern and northern portions of the
forecast area that are closer to this developing system will be
more likely to see some rainfall and enhanced cloud coverage.
Given the slightly better model alignment than previous days, the
NBM has categorically upped PoPs from less than 25% slight chances
to about 40% chances in the eastern third of the forecast area
Tuesday, with gradually diminishing PoPs through the remainder of
the week within an overall diurnal trend based on the diurnal
heating cycle. It is important to note that the positioning of
this particular tropical or subtropical system will translate to
flow with northerly components. As a result, while downsloping
appears less likely than it did with Francine, if the system
retrogrades westward, orographic lift could locally enhance rain
chances in northward- facing terrain. This system will be working
against some dry air leftover in the column from this past
weekend's ridging, and forecast rain totals reflect this. Any rain
that falls from this system will likely be more stratiform in
nature than the intense/convective type that one might associate
with tropical cyclones. Significant impacts from this system
across Eastern Kentucky are not expected at this time. Instead, we
will see chances for some beneficial rain, and these chances
might increase further as higher-resolution guidance comes into
perspective. We once again encourage interested parties to stay
tuned to future forecast updates as confidence increases and the
exact details regarding this system's evolution are nailed down.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT SUN SEP 15 2024
Mostly clear conditions hold through the period, with VFR the
prevailing flight category. Given the dry air in place only
limited river valley fog is expected to develop late tonight into
Monday morning. This fog will not affect any TAF sites. Winds
will be less than 10 kts from the southeast to east.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...CMC/MARCUS
AVIATION...CMC/GREIF
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 15, 2:00 PM EDT---------------
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