LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 13, 12:24 PM CDT ...New AVIATION...572
FXUS64 KLIX 131724
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1224 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024
Forecast will remain fairly quiet today and through the weekend
but there is still a small chance we could see a shower or two
this weekend and the culprit, the remains of what was Francine.
Currently the remains of Francine merged with a s/w and is sitting
over AR and MO. This is providing northwest flow and will bring
in the drier air today but as we move into the weekend the energy
will begin to stretch out and diver southeast into the
southeastern CONUS. First piece of it will work southeast into MS
and AL overnight Friday and Saturday. At the sfc we will see winds
start to come back out of the west and southwest allowing
moisture to come back into the area Friday night. That first
impulse will bring a very weak front into the region Saturday and
it will remain over the area through the weekend. This may be
enough to get a few storms both Saturday and Sunday. As for temps,
we will be near to slightly abv normal with afternoon highs
having the highest chance of being abv normal and with moisture
returning along with very saturated soils the heat index could be
in the mid to upper 90s. /CAB/
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024
As we move into the new work week the forecast doesn't really
change much. Large closed low over the eastern CONUS will stay in
place through much of the week. First half of the week we should
see temps remain near normal. Northwest flow will still be in
place with some influence still from the remnants of Francine and
that could allow another day of isolated to scattered convection
in the afternoon, but only light rain at best. As we move deeper
into the week the closed low deepens but a ridge will build over
the Plains and into the Upper MS Valley with drier air and warmer
temps starting to build back into the region. /CAB/
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024
A scattered to broken cumulus field ranging near 2500 feet will
continue to bring a mix of MVFR and VFR conditions to all of the
terminals through tomorrow. At MCB, a brief and weak surface based
temperature inversion could allow for patchy fog development
between 12z and 15z that could reduce visibilities to between 3
and 5 miles at times. Overall, only minimal weather related
impacts are expected at the terminals. PG
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024
Currently all terminals are VFR, although satellite imagery
indicates that there is a fair amount of cloud cover in between
terminals with most cloud bases above FL030. A few -SHRA remain
over south central Louisiana south of KLFT that would probably
have to hold together for another 3-6 hours to even reach KMSY,
which doesn't appear likely. However, MVFR ceilings are likely to
develop prior to sunrise at many terminals, with IFR conditions
possible at KMCB. These lower ceilings are expected to lift above
FL030 at mid-morning, with VFR expected beyond that point until
the end of the forecast period. /RW/
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 320 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024
High pressure has and will continue to settle in over the northern
Gulf. This will provide fairly benign conditions across the
coastal waters from a wind and wave standpoint. That said there
will likely be a few showers and thunderstorms this weekend. /CAB/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 65 87 66 85 / 0 10 10 30
BTR 70 92 72 90 / 0 10 10 20
ASD 69 88 70 87 / 0 10 10 20
MSY 72 88 73 86 / 0 10 10 20
GPT 70 87 70 87 / 0 10 10 30
PQL 69 90 70 90 / 0 10 20 30
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CAB
LONG TERM....CAB
AVIATION...PG
MARINE...CAB
Source:
LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 13, 12:24 PM CDT ...New AVIATION...---------------
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