IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 10, 1:04 AM EDT812
FXUS63 KIWX 100504
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
104 AM EDT Tue Sep 10 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Canadian wildfire smoke in the upper levels will give skies a
hazy look into Tuesday.
- Rapid return to above normal temperatures with highs well
into the 80s and possibly near 90 the rest of the week. Heat
indices will increase, but remain below dangerous levels.
- Soil moisture conditions will trend even drier this week with
low humidity and no rainfall. Remnants of tropical moisture
may surge into the region Fri-Sun, but confidence in chances
for measurable rainfall remain low.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 150 PM EDT Mon Sep 9 2024
Increasing upper level ridging will dominate through the upcoming
week with the main northern stream energy remains well west of the
region into this weekend. At the surface, high pressure centered
over the Ohio River will slowly move east, reaching the eastern US
by Wednesday. While low level thermal fields will increase, allowing
a return to above normal temperatures in the 80s and maybe a few 90s
mid week, moisture return will be much slower, advecting in either
from the west on the edge of the high pressure or potentially with
the arrival of tropical moisture this weekend. This will help keep
heat indices in check (similar to forecasted highs), but also will
allow further drying of soil and vegetation, further increasing the
very dry conditions in many areas.
The only hope in the forecast period for measurable rainfall will
exist with what is now TS Francine, set to make landfall Thursday
and the work north into this weekend. As it does, high pressure
across the northern Great Lakes looks to strengthen, potentially
putting an abrupt end to how far north the remnants can make it.
Dewpoints will increase into the 50s later this week and maybe into
the 60s (PWATS 1.5" or greater) for the weekend. Forcing mechanisms
remain questionable at this point in the forecast with the main
energy west and only possible triggers being the leftover, weakening
energy from "Francine". Many med range models decimate the main rain
shield with the system with more of a diurnally driven potential for
showers over the weekend (assuming moisture does arrive). Model
blend is bringing pops in way too fast (Late Thu night in the
south) with chances probably holding off till Saturday. Have
tried to capture this in the later periods, but continued
fluxuations are expected as "Francine" continues to develop.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 103 AM EDT Tue Sep 10 2024
VFR ceilings and light and variable winds perisit overnight and
throughout the day as high pressure builds over the area.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Fisher
AVIATION...Johnson
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 10, 1:04 AM EDT---------------
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