IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 13, 8:56 AM EDT150
FXUS63 KIND 131256
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
856 AM EDT Fri Sep 13 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Rainfall from Francine remnants through this evening will be
focused over southwest portions of central Indiana
- A few light showers may linger across the southwest on Saturday
though most areas will remain dry.
- Fairly stagnant pattern through next week, with highs in the low
to mid 80s and lows around 60 to the mid 60s with mostly quiet
weather
&&
.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 856 AM EDT Fri Sep 13 2024
The remnants of Hurricane Francine are continuing its trek
northward. However, it's encountering an anomalous region of high
pressure with a very dry air mass in the low levels. This has
curtailed the northward progression of precipitation keeping the rain
south of the I-74 corridor. Slight movements to the N/NE are
possible throughout the morning, but current rainbands are expected
to weaken and evaporate as the remnant low fills throughout the day.
Most of the I-74 corridor and areas to the north should remain dry
with clearing skies this afternoon and evening.
A dichotomous temperature map will be present today across central
Indiana. Those beneath rain currently are likely to top out in the
mid to upper 70s this afternoon, whereas areas to the N/NE are
expected to get into the mid 80s.
Grid updates are out.
&&
.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 238 AM EDT Fri Sep 13 2024
Mid and high level clouds have overspread central Indiana early this
morning with the leading edge of the rain associated with the
remnants of Francine moving into the lower Wabash Valley.
Temperatures at 06Z were in the 60s.
The center of what is left of Francine has drifted northwest into
eastern Arkansas early this morning and will essentially spin
aimlessly over that area before weakening further into the weekend
then shifting back east over the mid South. The position of the
remnants today and the expected weakening of the system over the
next 24 hours do not bode well for much needed rainfall over most of
the forecast area...with increasing signs that the lower Wabash
Valley and far southern portions of the forecast area are the only
spots likely to see any appreciable rain through tonight. And even
those rainfall amounts expected will not put any dent in the ongoing
dryness and increasing drought conditions that have developed.
The remnants of a stronger wind field at 850mb are aiding in driving
the ongoing convection lifting north through the lower Ohio Valley
and approaching the lower Wabash Valley currently. But the low level
jet is poised to largely collapse by daybreak with upper forcing
associated with Francine remaining focused to our southwest. While
rain will gradually expand into southwest counties over the next
several hours...the loss of the low level jet and limited forcing
aloft will impact rain by gradually diminishing coverage and
intensity as it moves into the lower Wabash Valley.
Expect the showers to lift up to near a Terre Haute to Bloomington
to Seymour line through the morning but confidence continues to grow
in rain not making any further progress to the northeast courtesy of
the residual dry air and subsidence that has been present over the
area all week. Isolated to scattered showers and perhaps a rumble of
thunder will continue over southwest counties through the afternoon
with mostly cloudy but dry conditions over the rest of the forecast
area.
Deeper moisture is shifted to our west tonight as the ridging at the
surface and aloft once again exerts its influence and advects a
renewed surge of drier air back into the region overnight. Any
lingering light showers will diminish this evening with cloud
coverage decreasing from the east as well overnight as what is left
of Francine collapses into a sluggish upper level low over
the western Tennessee Valley.
Temps...temperatures will be held down by the extensive cloud cover
today...with mid and upper 70s over the southwest rising into the
low to mid 80s northeast where filtered sunshine is likely. Lows
tonight will fall into the low and mid 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 238 AM EDT Fri Sep 13 2024
Overall thinking remains largely the same through the extended
period. Latest guidance continues to trend drier for all of central
Indiana regarding the remnants of Francine. Aloft, a rex block is
expected to develop over the weekend into next week which will
result in a stagnant weather pattern. At the surface, moisture from
Francine's remnants should struggle to make much progress across
central Indiana with high pressure and a drier airmass still in
place. An isolated shower over far southwestern counties on Saturday
cannot be completely ruled out, but most models show negligible
forcing and moisture to support any measurable precipitation. POPs
this weekend have been lowered for these reasons. Look for much of
central Indiana to remain dry.
Drought relief looks unlikely through next week as the stagnant
upper/surface ridge remain centered over the region. Expect
generally quiet weather conditions with slightly above normal highs
in the low to mid 80s. Some guidance shows a weak tropical or
subtropical low developing off the coast of the Carolinas early next
week and then moving towards the Appalachians. Any precipitation or
impacts to central Indiana appear unlikely at this time though there
could be an increase in cloud cover towards midweek.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 620 AM EDT Fri Sep 13 2024
Impacts:
- An isolated shower may briefly impact KBMG or KHUF today, but
confidence is low
- Occasional gusts up to 20kts possible at KIND and KLAF this
afternoon
Discussion:
Clouds will continue to thicken and lower this morning as the
remnant circulation from Francine approaches, especially at
KBMG/KHUF, but no restrictions are expected. Deeper moisture will
likely struggle to reach the TAF sites which should limit any
potential for rainfall. However, there is a low chance for a shower
to impact KBMG/KHUF today.
A decrease in overall moisture this evening is likely as a new surge
of drier air from the east will advect into the area with ceilings
lifting back up over 10kft at all terminals. E/SE flow will persist
throughout the forecast period with the potential for occasional
gusts to near 20kts again this afternoon at KIND and KLAF.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Updike
SHORT TERM...Ryan
LONG TERM...Melo
AVIATION...Melo
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 13, 8:56 AM EDT---------------
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