BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 10, 2:31 PM EDT331
FXUS61 KBOX 101831
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
231 PM EDT Tue Sep 10 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A dry cold front will move through Southern New England today,
with morning cloud cover trending toward full sun. High pressure
then governs our weather through at least the weekend and into
early next week, maintaining dry weather for the foreseeable
future. Seasonable temperatures are expected through midweek
with mild days and cooler nights, then will begin a warming
trend toward slightly above normal levels for late in the week
into the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
245 AM Update:
Early-morning moisture-channel imagery shows a potent shortwave
disturbance progressing through Southern New England, although
this is just generating a brief period of enhanced mid-level
cloud cover with any showers drying up. With modest SW winds
initially in place along with partial cloudiness, current temps
early this morning were in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Strong high
pressure was noted to the south and west and is expected to
gradually build eastward into Southern New England today.
Expect early-day cloud cover to dissipate and/or shift offshore
by mid morning, with cold frontal passage bringing a windshift
from SW to NW with speeds around 10 mph. Cool and dry advection
and full sunshine will lead to pretty good mixing up to about
875-850 mb today. It looks as though NW winds will keep any
seabreezes from developing today - if it does, it may develop
very late in the day for a brief period of time. But all in all,
just a stellar Tuesday for Southern New England with wall-to-
wall sunshine and highs in the 70s. Dewpoints will also fall
from current values in the mid 50s to around 60 into the 40s to
low 50s by the afternoon. Hopefully you'll have some time to
take advantage of what should be an outstanding day weatherwise!
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
245 AM Update:
Tonight through Wednesday:
High pressure at surface moves over Southern New England
tonight, then gradually moves eastward to a position near the
southeast coastal waters on Wed. 500 mb heights rise through
this forecast period as well, with 850 mb temps warming to
around 10-12 C on Wed. This will bring continued dry weather to
Southern New England, with only a few high clouds for Wed.
For tonight...clear skies and decreasing NW winds will be the
rule. This will set the stage for strong radiational cooling and
expectation of significant hourly temperature falls after
sundown. Continued dry advection should mitigate any radiation
fog from developing, however. Lows in the 40s to the mid 50s,
with 40s more common in NW MA as well as around the I-495
corridor in MA and into eastern CT.
For Wednesday...other than an advance of high clouds from the
SW, much of the day will again feature mostly sunny and
continued dry, tranquil weather. With weaker boundary layer
winds and high pressure moving seaward, Wed is probably a better
chance for seabreezes to develop on both coasts. Should see
highs reach well into the 70s to near 80 away from the
coastlines, with temps in the low to mid 70s near the coasts.
Humidity levels should still be pretty comfortable, even with
dewpoint temps slated to rise a couple degrees compared to
today.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Highlights:
* Dry conditions throughout the second-half of the week through
early next week, as high pressure remains firmly in control.
* Temperatures trending warmer through the upcoming weekend before
returning to more seasonable highs early next week.
The extended forecast remains on track with minimal changes after
reviewing the 00z guidance. As mentioned, the Northeast is under the
influence of a mid-level ridge and surface high-pressure Wednesday
night through early next week. Expect dry conditions throughout the
extended period, with the only wrinkle occurring sometime Friday, as
a weak shortwave moves along the outer periphery of the mid-level
high over southern New England. BUFKIT soundings show very little
vertical saturation, suggesting perhaps a few cumulus clouds with a
very low chance of an isolated shower. Global ensembles, includes
DESI, show a low probability (less than 10%) for 0.01" of
precipitation over 24 hours. As a result, there was no need to
deviate from the NBM POPs, which remain below 5% during this period.
The center of the high settles over the region by the weekend and
may remain in place through Monday (or potentially longer). As for
temperatures, expect a gradual warm-up, with the warmest days from
Friday to Sunday. Highs will reach the upper 70s inland and the mid-
80s along the coastal plain. Given our set up of clear skies and
light winds, radiational cooling is likely, and overnight lows were
adjusted using a blend of the 10th percentile of the NBM. Thursday
morning will likely be the coolest, with lows in the mid-40s to low
50s, with slightly warmer nights by the weekend, in the 50s, as
daytime temperatures rise.
There is activity in the Eastern Atlantic along the Intertropical
Convergence Zone, where two areas show modest probabilities of
development over the next 7 days, according to NHC. Fortunately for
our region, strong surface high and mid-level steering should keep
any tropical impacts away - for now.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
18Z TAF Update:
This afternoon and Tonight: High confidence.
VFR, early-day midlevel clouds become SKC. NW winds around 8-12
kt today; seabreeze should stay offshore. Easing NW windspeeds
after sundown thru 12z Wed.
Wednesday and Wednesday night: High confidence.
VFR. Winds become light SW, with stronger chances for seabreeze
development on both coasts, soonest at KBOS around 15z and
around 17-19z at PVD.
KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF. NW winds predominate today
SE seabreeze is more likely for Wed around 14z.
KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Wednesday Night through Sunday/...
VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
245 AM Update:
Through Wednesday: High confidence.
A dry cold frontal passage takes place early this morning, which
will brings a windshift from initial SW around 10-15 kt to WNW
around 15-20 kt, then becoming NW around 10-15 kt by afternoon.
Easing NW winds tonight with winds on Wed becoming light SE to
S. Seas 3 ft or less all waters.
Outlook /Wednesday Night through Sunday/...
Winds less than 25 kt.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Loconto/Dooley
NEAR TERM...Loconto
SHORT TERM...Loconto
LONG TERM...Dooley
AVIATION...BW/Dooley
MARINE...Loconto/Dooley
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 10, 2:31 PM EDT----------------
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