BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 9, 7:06 PM EDT119
FXUS61 KBOX 092306
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
706 PM EDT Mon Sep 9 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A few brief spot showers tonight mainly this evening and focused
across the interior, as a weak front moves into the region.
High pressure will dominate the weather for the rest of the week
into next weekend with dry conditions and warming temperatures
above normal.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
* A few brief spot showers tonight...mainly across the interior
* Overnight low temps mainly in the 50s
The latest SPC Meso-Analysis indicates 500T of -18C/-19C moving
in from the west with a vigorous upper level shortwave/cold
front. Despite limited surface moisture...the cold pool aloft
was enough to result in a few hundred J/KG of Cape. As the core
of this moves across the region this evening...thinking there is
enough there for a few brief showers with the focus for them
across the interior. Given the cold 500T...we can not rule out a
bit of graupel with a few of the showers and even the low risk
for a rumble of thunder. Not sure if any of this activity will
survive onto the coastal plain allowing for a brief spot shower
or two...but nothing more than that.
Areal coverage/duration of any showers will be quite limited
and regardless should wind down during the second half of the
night. Otherwise...overnight low temps should bottom out mainly
in the 50s to near 60 in the Urban Heat Island of Boston. A
touch of very localized patchy ground fog is possible late in
the typically most vulnerable locations...but this will not
impact most locations.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Points...
* Sunny & Beautiful Tue with highs mainly middle-upper 70s
* Dry/Cool Tue night with lows mainly in the 40s and a few 50s
Details...
Tuesday...
A sunny & beautiful day is in store for Tue behind the
shortwave/cold frontal passage tonight. Plenty of sunshine &
good mixing with 850T near +9C should yield afternoon high temps
generally in the middle to upper 70s although a few degrees
cooler in the high terrain.
Tuesday night...
Large high pressure builds in from the west. This coupled with
light/calm winds and a relatively dry boundary layer should
allow overnight low temps to bottom out in the 40s across most
locations with some middle 50s in the urban centers of downtown
Boston/Providence and parts of the outer Cape/Nantucket.
Dewpoints in the 40s/lower 50s will result in a very
comfortable humidity too.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
* Dry weather through early next week with high pressure in control.
* Temperatures trending above seasonable late in the week and into
the weekend.
Details...
From mid week through at least the early part of next week the
weather in Southern New England will be dominated by a building high
pressure ridge; first to our west over the Great Lakes, then moving
overhead by early next week. Beyond that many guidance sources show
even a rebuilding ridge upstream that would continue our dry and
seasonable to slightly warmer than average streak. The warmest
stretch of the extended forecast will be Thursday through Saturday
as the placement of the high directs warm southwesterly flow into
the region which gives high temperatures in the low to mid 80s away
from the coast; moderation expected by the second half of the
weekend into next week. The one possible exception to the dry
forecast comes late Friday as a weak disturbance rotates through the
flow but given weak forcing and marginal moisture in the column most
locations will stay dry.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
00z TAF Update...
Tonight...High confidence.
VFR with just the risk of very localized patchy ground fog
toward daybreak in the typically most vulnerable low-lying
locations. A few brief spot showers expected mainly across the
interior this evening. W-SW winds 5 to 15 knots through tonight
with some gusts into the lower 20 knots this afternoon.
Tuesday...High confidence.
VFR. NW winds 5 to 15 knots with the low risk of a brief sea
breeze during the afternoon on the very immediate eastern MA
coast.
Tuesday night...High confidence.
VFR. Calm to light NW winds.
KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF overall. Only uncertainty is a
few hours Tuesday afternoon....when a sea breeze may flirt with
the terminal for a few hours.
KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...
VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Tonight through Tuesday night...High confidence.
W-SW winds of 10 to 15 knots will persist this evening and
shift the NW by Tue morning behind a cold frontal passage...but
below small craft advisory thresholds. Winds will then become
more variable in direction Tue PM...but winds/seas will remain
below small craft advisory thresholds as high pressure builds in
from the west.
Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...
Winds less than 25 kt.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Frank/BW
NEAR TERM...Frank/BW
SHORT TERM...Frank
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...Frank/BW
MARINE...Frank/BW
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 9, 7:06 PM EDT----------------
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